Mohamed Boussaïd: 2009 will be difficult, but Morocco has the means to resist
7 December 2009
Read by 1439 persons
In 2009, global tourism growth will be zero. Morocco will therefore have to take market share from other destinations. The Minister of Tourism launches a challenge: maintain a growth rate of 7% for 2009 as for 2008. Cap 2009 does not replace Vision 2010 but complements it.
La Vie éco: The Ministry of Tourism is preparing to launch Cap 2009, an emergency plan. However, for tourist stays, bookings are made months in advance, so there is a risk of missing the first quarter of next year...
Mohamed Boussaïd: It is true that, for a long time, bookings were made well in advance. But today, this is less and less the case.
Observed behaviors show rather last-minute decisions, encouraged by the abundance of offers, the development of the Internet and low-cost options. Also, if we can roughly know the main trends, the results of a season are only known when it is over and this observation is confirmed by surveys.
The latest one, recently carried out in France, shows that, for the winter season, only 40% of holidaymakers booked in advance.
Of all those surveyed, 42% say they choose their destination and buy their trip online and, for the first time, the Internet surpasses traditional travel agencies.
It is true that the brochures of TOs for next summer are already being marketed, but there is still a large margin and it is as much business that must be attracted by encouraging tourists to choose Morocco, notably through the quality/price ratio.
And the Cap 2009 plan is able to allow this realization...
Cap 2009 is justified by the weight of tourism in our economy and the priority given to it.
It is a sector linked to foreign markets, therefore extremely competitive, which interacts with the health of economies and, in this sense, it does not depend only on Morocco but on external tourist demand. Our duty is to develop scenarios and anticipate this evolution on a global scale.
The crisis is here. It affects the purchasing power of households in the emitting markets and we know that leisure constitutes the soft underbelly of the budget of these households, which results in a decrease in demand.
On this subject, the World Tourism Organization, after having established forecasts of tourist demand growth of around 5.7% for the year 2008, has reduced its forecasts to 2%. For 2009, it predicts zero growth.
In short, for next year, each additional customer will be taken from another destination. And no one can say today how long this situation will last.
Our duty as a government is to be aware of this context and not to deceive ourselves, and that is what we are doing, in agreement with the professionals. Because Cap 2009 is not an emanation of the government but of the professionals themselves who have worked to anticipate this evolution, to save our market shares and, why not, to conquer new ones.
The approach for Cap 2009 advocates relying on a limited number of key partners. Do you think there are too many today?
Not at all. Cap 2009 needs to be executed properly and you don't need 1,000 people to do it.
It's more a matter of efficiency. The whole plan is to attract customers in a context where there are fewer of them. First of all, it was a matter of producing all the ideas to defend our market shares and conquer others.
Concretely, we will boost the entire promotional part by allocating an additional budget to it and we will make the CRTs more responsible, by asking each of them to quickly prepare an action plan in order to decline the ideas proposed in Cap 2009.
Don't you think it might be too late by then?
No, all this work must be done imperatively before January 10. This plan includes many short-term actions to respond to the current crisis situation, but there are also structural actions, including making the CRTs more responsible, as it is true that they do not have many resources and that they have organizational problems, etc. There are also actions that will not be carried out in 2009, but in this case it is a matter of initiating processes.
But shouldn't all this reflection have been carried out from the beginning to accompany Vision 2010?
There is an important element to specify at this level: Cap 2009 does not replace Vision 2010. The latter constitutes an integrated, homogeneous, coherent, and shared strategy. It includes projects, some of which are very advanced and others less so.
Cap 2009 does not replace the strategy and is not a new strategy either. It is a device that complements it to take into account a situation whose size and duration no one can assess.
The assessment made within the framework of this plan mentions risk factors such as the slowdown in investments, the deprogramming of Morocco...
Are these factors considered as hypotheses or because you have started to feel the effects of some of them?
I can assure you that today there is nothing of the sort. For 2008, and the figures demonstrate it, we are still on the best trend compared to other destinations. But in the event that this situation affects the sector, it is necessary to anticipate, in order to provide answers, hence Cap 2009. On what growth rate can we reasonably expect for 2009?
All I can tell you is that growth will be positive, but no one can predict how much. Take for example the year 2008: at the end of October, Tunisia achieved a 3.4% growth in arrivals, Turkey did 10% more, Croatia 2%, Cyprus -0.6% and Morocco did +6%. While demand only evolved, according to the UNWTO, by 2%, we will end the year with +7%. And it is this trend that I promise to maintain next year.
How much will the implementation of Cap 2009 cost?
We have an additional financing of 50 million dirhams within the framework of the ONMT budget which will be entirely devoted to the implementation of these measures, and if an additional effort proves necessary, we will find other financing with the help of our partners.
Where will we find these additional tourists to maintain the trend if the world market stagnates?
Moroccan tourism is very diversified tourism, and the revenue from our tourism shows that we have a rather high-end tourism, even if we also offer mass tourism. So, we are not in competition with low-end tourism.
We will look for tourists where purchasing power has not been affected by the situation, particularly in the Gulf countries, in Eastern Europe. But we must also maintain our shares in our traditional markets.
Don't you think that Morocco has remained too dependent on these traditional emitting markets, particularly France and Spain? There are two reasons for this. The first is related to the limited resources we have.
We cannot promote ourselves worldwide. Secondly, when you want to target a given market, you must have the right product. The Arab market is promising, of course, but complex.
It is a family and shopping tourism and we are preparing for this type of clientele by offering adapted accommodation, particularly in resorts, and shopping in cities like Casablanca. Tourism is not a smooth-flowing river, and those who succeed are those who know how to adapt.
Could this not lead to a confused positioning?
Absolutely not. Our positioning is very clear: it is rather high-end tourism with a diversity of products, a tourism that I would qualify as authentic, diversified and differentiated, because it highlights our culture and our civilization.
We are one of the few countries where the first destination, Marrakech, is cultural. People are attracted to Morocco because we offer them the right product. We offer a whole range of products: seaside, cultural, niche, city break, desert, etc.
And when we talk about high-end tourism, it is in reference to revenue per tourist. The other asset lies in the fact that many high-end brands are setting up in our country, particularly in Marrakech. Next year, we will have 20,000 additional beds.
Which of the Azur plan will be affected?
No. 2009 will see the opening of two resorts, namely Saïdia, in June, with 3,000 beds, and Mazagan, in October, with approximately 500 beds.
For Lixus, work has begun on the first units, the first Sofitel hotel is in Mogador, and for Taghazout, construction will begin next January.
What about the delays for some resorts?
I have often tried to explain the complexity of managing and building a resort. It is true that there have been overruns, and I fully understand the expectations that the Azur plan has aroused. We are doing everything possible to open the resorts in the very short term, even if it is not on time, and in a situation that is not the most favorable. It is not enough to build hotels. Tourism is also an environment: the airport, customs, taxis, guides... Vision 2010 includes an environmental component, but we have not yet addressed this chapter.
Why?
I agree with you that building beds is the easiest thing to do and that improving the environment presents quite different difficulties. But it cannot be denied that many things have been done.
Morocco is a large construction site today: we are building highways, cities are being beautified, we must salute the action of the tourist police for the sanitation work it is doing.
I admit that there is no limit to improvement and we will succeed if we manage to offer an irreproachable tourist experience to our visitors. Finally, the Ministry of Tourism can develop strategies and policies, but to apply them, it remains dependent on other departments. It cannot do anything alone in short...
As you say, tourism is a cross-cutting sector, and there are countries that have understood this transversality to the point that all economic and social development has been grafted around tourism.
This means that there must be a general mobilization at the level of the government, local authorities, elected officials and professionals.
Do we have an idea of the tourist return rate?
According to the latest survey carried out on a sample of 5,000 tourists, we have gone from a rate of 32% in 2001 to 42% in 2005. So there is an improvement.
Another problem is the classification of hotels. Some display 5 or 4 stars when they do not deserve them and foreign tourists are sometimes disappointed with the quality of services compared to the displayed standard...
I agree with you that there are hotels that do not deserve the number of stars they display, and they must be downgraded. There are currently files with the walis concerned to downgrade establishments that are not up to standard. There is also a project to review the classification system, which is outdated.
Saâd Benmansour and Mohamed Moujahid
Published on December 26, 2008
Posted online on January 6, 2009
lavieeco.com
La Vie éco: The Ministry of Tourism is preparing to launch Cap 2009, an emergency plan. However, for tourist stays, bookings are made months in advance, so there is a risk of missing the first quarter of next year...
Mohamed Boussaïd: It is true that, for a long time, bookings were made well in advance. But today, this is less and less the case.
Observed behaviors show rather last-minute decisions, encouraged by the abundance of offers, the development of the Internet and low-cost options. Also, if we can roughly know the main trends, the results of a season are only known when it is over and this observation is confirmed by surveys.
The latest one, recently carried out in France, shows that, for the winter season, only 40% of holidaymakers booked in advance.
Of all those surveyed, 42% say they choose their destination and buy their trip online and, for the first time, the Internet surpasses traditional travel agencies.
It is true that the brochures of TOs for next summer are already being marketed, but there is still a large margin and it is as much business that must be attracted by encouraging tourists to choose Morocco, notably through the quality/price ratio.
And the Cap 2009 plan is able to allow this realization...
Cap 2009 is justified by the weight of tourism in our economy and the priority given to it.
It is a sector linked to foreign markets, therefore extremely competitive, which interacts with the health of economies and, in this sense, it does not depend only on Morocco but on external tourist demand. Our duty is to develop scenarios and anticipate this evolution on a global scale.
The crisis is here. It affects the purchasing power of households in the emitting markets and we know that leisure constitutes the soft underbelly of the budget of these households, which results in a decrease in demand.
On this subject, the World Tourism Organization, after having established forecasts of tourist demand growth of around 5.7% for the year 2008, has reduced its forecasts to 2%. For 2009, it predicts zero growth.
In short, for next year, each additional customer will be taken from another destination. And no one can say today how long this situation will last.
Our duty as a government is to be aware of this context and not to deceive ourselves, and that is what we are doing, in agreement with the professionals. Because Cap 2009 is not an emanation of the government but of the professionals themselves who have worked to anticipate this evolution, to save our market shares and, why not, to conquer new ones.
The approach for Cap 2009 advocates relying on a limited number of key partners. Do you think there are too many today?
Not at all. Cap 2009 needs to be executed properly and you don't need 1,000 people to do it.
It's more a matter of efficiency. The whole plan is to attract customers in a context where there are fewer of them. First of all, it was a matter of producing all the ideas to defend our market shares and conquer others.
Concretely, we will boost the entire promotional part by allocating an additional budget to it and we will make the CRTs more responsible, by asking each of them to quickly prepare an action plan in order to decline the ideas proposed in Cap 2009.
Don't you think it might be too late by then?
No, all this work must be done imperatively before January 10. This plan includes many short-term actions to respond to the current crisis situation, but there are also structural actions, including making the CRTs more responsible, as it is true that they do not have many resources and that they have organizational problems, etc. There are also actions that will not be carried out in 2009, but in this case it is a matter of initiating processes.
But shouldn't all this reflection have been carried out from the beginning to accompany Vision 2010?
There is an important element to specify at this level: Cap 2009 does not replace Vision 2010. The latter constitutes an integrated, homogeneous, coherent, and shared strategy. It includes projects, some of which are very advanced and others less so.
Cap 2009 does not replace the strategy and is not a new strategy either. It is a device that complements it to take into account a situation whose size and duration no one can assess.
The assessment made within the framework of this plan mentions risk factors such as the slowdown in investments, the deprogramming of Morocco...
Are these factors considered as hypotheses or because you have started to feel the effects of some of them?
I can assure you that today there is nothing of the sort. For 2008, and the figures demonstrate it, we are still on the best trend compared to other destinations. But in the event that this situation affects the sector, it is necessary to anticipate, in order to provide answers, hence Cap 2009. On what growth rate can we reasonably expect for 2009?
All I can tell you is that growth will be positive, but no one can predict how much. Take for example the year 2008: at the end of October, Tunisia achieved a 3.4% growth in arrivals, Turkey did 10% more, Croatia 2%, Cyprus -0.6% and Morocco did +6%. While demand only evolved, according to the UNWTO, by 2%, we will end the year with +7%. And it is this trend that I promise to maintain next year.
How much will the implementation of Cap 2009 cost?
We have an additional financing of 50 million dirhams within the framework of the ONMT budget which will be entirely devoted to the implementation of these measures, and if an additional effort proves necessary, we will find other financing with the help of our partners.
Where will we find these additional tourists to maintain the trend if the world market stagnates?
Moroccan tourism is very diversified tourism, and the revenue from our tourism shows that we have a rather high-end tourism, even if we also offer mass tourism. So, we are not in competition with low-end tourism.
We will look for tourists where purchasing power has not been affected by the situation, particularly in the Gulf countries, in Eastern Europe. But we must also maintain our shares in our traditional markets.
Don't you think that Morocco has remained too dependent on these traditional emitting markets, particularly France and Spain? There are two reasons for this. The first is related to the limited resources we have.
We cannot promote ourselves worldwide. Secondly, when you want to target a given market, you must have the right product. The Arab market is promising, of course, but complex.
It is a family and shopping tourism and we are preparing for this type of clientele by offering adapted accommodation, particularly in resorts, and shopping in cities like Casablanca. Tourism is not a smooth-flowing river, and those who succeed are those who know how to adapt.
Could this not lead to a confused positioning?
Absolutely not. Our positioning is very clear: it is rather high-end tourism with a diversity of products, a tourism that I would qualify as authentic, diversified and differentiated, because it highlights our culture and our civilization.
We are one of the few countries where the first destination, Marrakech, is cultural. People are attracted to Morocco because we offer them the right product. We offer a whole range of products: seaside, cultural, niche, city break, desert, etc.
And when we talk about high-end tourism, it is in reference to revenue per tourist. The other asset lies in the fact that many high-end brands are setting up in our country, particularly in Marrakech. Next year, we will have 20,000 additional beds.
Which of the Azur plan will be affected?
No. 2009 will see the opening of two resorts, namely Saïdia, in June, with 3,000 beds, and Mazagan, in October, with approximately 500 beds.
For Lixus, work has begun on the first units, the first Sofitel hotel is in Mogador, and for Taghazout, construction will begin next January.
What about the delays for some resorts?
I have often tried to explain the complexity of managing and building a resort. It is true that there have been overruns, and I fully understand the expectations that the Azur plan has aroused. We are doing everything possible to open the resorts in the very short term, even if it is not on time, and in a situation that is not the most favorable. It is not enough to build hotels. Tourism is also an environment: the airport, customs, taxis, guides... Vision 2010 includes an environmental component, but we have not yet addressed this chapter.
Why?
I agree with you that building beds is the easiest thing to do and that improving the environment presents quite different difficulties. But it cannot be denied that many things have been done.
Morocco is a large construction site today: we are building highways, cities are being beautified, we must salute the action of the tourist police for the sanitation work it is doing.
I admit that there is no limit to improvement and we will succeed if we manage to offer an irreproachable tourist experience to our visitors. Finally, the Ministry of Tourism can develop strategies and policies, but to apply them, it remains dependent on other departments. It cannot do anything alone in short...
As you say, tourism is a cross-cutting sector, and there are countries that have understood this transversality to the point that all economic and social development has been grafted around tourism.
This means that there must be a general mobilization at the level of the government, local authorities, elected officials and professionals.
Do we have an idea of the tourist return rate?
According to the latest survey carried out on a sample of 5,000 tourists, we have gone from a rate of 32% in 2001 to 42% in 2005. So there is an improvement.
Another problem is the classification of hotels. Some display 5 or 4 stars when they do not deserve them and foreign tourists are sometimes disappointed with the quality of services compared to the displayed standard...
I agree with you that there are hotels that do not deserve the number of stars they display, and they must be downgraded. There are currently files with the walis concerned to downgrade establishments that are not up to standard. There is also a project to review the classification system, which is outdated.
Saâd Benmansour and Mohamed Moujahid
Published on December 26, 2008
Posted online on January 6, 2009
lavieeco.com
