How was 2010, what will 2011 be like? 201 surveyed managers
27 December 2010
Read by 2027 persons
Only 30% of companies experienced a decrease in turnover in 2010, but payment deadlines were extended. 83% are optimistic and only 5% fear a drop in turnover in 2011.
Is the crisis behind us? It is probably too early to say definitively, but the results of the survey on the morale of managers carried out with 201 business leaders (see technical sheet) by the DS Marketing firm on behalf of La Vie éco suggest that the end of the tunnel is clearly visible. First of all, we note that the year was not easy, even if the economy as a whole held up well. Indeed, for the entire sample, 63.2% indicate that their company's activity was affected by a slowdown, which does not necessarily mean a decrease in turnover. The situation is more pronounced in the provinces, with 66.7% positive responses compared to 61.1% for the Casablanca-Rabat axis, where most economic activity is concentrated. The majority of respondents (96.9%) and all 75 provincial companies attribute the difficulties to the economic situation. From a sectoral point of view, the problem is more pronounced in the industry-construction sector, where 69% say they have been affected, compared to 59.7% in services and 59.2% in commerce.
Larger companies less affected by late payers
Despite all the exogenous or endogenous obstacles, business activity did not collapse. Many even did better than just limiting the damage. Only 30% of the sample saw their turnover fall by more or less 10%. For 27% of respondents, it is stagnant and 43% showed an increase. Naturally, the situation was more difficult in the construction and industry sectors. No less than 60% of respondents in the sector declare that they have achieved turnover that is stagnant (27.5%) or down by less than 10% (20%) or more than 10% (12.5%). Nevertheless, in these two sectors, there are more companies whose turnover is up (40%) than companies that have suffered a decline (32.5%). In terms of turnover, commerce is the sector that shows the most declines: 34.7% of respondents in the sector are in this situation. According to size, practically one third of each group is in an unfavorable context. Companies with fewer than 50 employees are in better shape, with turnover up for 46% of them, compared to 45.3% in the large company category (more than 200 employees) and 36% in medium-sized companies (between 50 and 199 employees). In each group, stagnant companies represent 25%, 24.4%, and 31.7% respectively. The increase in the level of invoicing does not always correspond to the speed of recovery. The perennial equation of lengthening payment deadlines considerably hinders operators, especially since the majority, if not all, suffer from a lack of cash flow. The survey data reveal the persistence of the problem. In total, 53.2% of the managers interviewed deplore a deterioration in payment deadlines compared to the previous year, which in many ways was much more difficult. Only 10% of the sample announce an improvement, while the situation has stabilized for 36.3% of respondents.
It is in commerce that late payers are much more prevalent. 61.2% of respondents suffer from an extension of deadlines, compared to 47.5% and 54.2% for the industry/construction and services sectors respectively. Naturally, SMEs are the most affected. 56% of companies with fewer than 50 employees and 56.7% of those employing between 50 and 199 employees are affected by the phenomenon, compared to 41.5% of large companies. Paradoxically, it is in the regions that operators are more respectful of their commitments because the worsening of recovery difficulties is only recognized by 48% of respondents, while it is 56.3% in the Casa-Rabat axis. However, there is a caveat: invoices are generally honored within relatively sustainable deadlines. For 69.4% of those surveyed, payment is made within 3 months of the invoice being submitted. Only 11.5% recover their receivables after 6 months or more. But this last figure must be interpreted cautiously because the harmful consequences of a late payment depend, of course, on the amount, but much more on the financial soundness of the creditor or their ability to refinance themselves in the short term from the banking sector. The further away one is from these last two criteria, the more difficult it will be to cope with delays, regardless of the amount.
Another significant piece of information is that exporting companies (32.3% of the sample) overwhelmingly recognize (66.2%) that they did not encounter difficulties selling abroad. They are 62.9% in the construction/industry group, 66.7% in services, and 73.3% in commerce. The most dynamic are found in companies with 50 to 199 employees: 74.1% compared to 61.9% for small companies and 58.8% for large companies.
Overall, volume did not follow: 44.6% of the sample deplore a reduction. Large companies, although more numerous in regretting difficulties in exporting, suffer much less. Certainly because they work in large markets. They are only 35.3% in this case, compared to 48.1% of medium-sized companies and 47.6% of small companies.
All things considered, the economy has fared well. If we are to believe the majority of managers, the recovery is confirmed. 57.7% find that the current economic situation is favorable. This proportion is close to 60% in the industry/construction and services sectors, but falls to 53.1% in commerce.
The heavy rains at the end of November, which caused more or less prolonged power cuts and devastating floods that led to business shutdowns, did not dampen the enthusiasm of managers. The proof is that 82.6% of the overall sample are optimistic for 2011. The rate is above 75% in all sectors, company categories, and regions. But for the moment, orders for the first quarter or for the whole of 2011 are not exploding, even if those who deplore a fall are very much in the minority (13.9%). In total, 56.2% of the sample indicate that they are at their usual level, compared to 26.9% who declare more. It is in commerce where demand is higher than usual (32.7%), but it should also be noted that it is in this sector that managers are more reserved about the situation prevailing at the end of the year. In short, the intensity of the rebound is generally more significant after a trough.
Except in medium-sized companies (20%), more than a quarter of the sample announces an increase above the usual level: 31% among those with fewer than 50 employees and 26.8% among large companies. The situation is similar on the Rabat-Casa axis as well as in the regions. In the first zone, 54% of respondents announce an equivalent level of orders and 27.8% an increase. In the second, 60% expect stagnation and 25.3% an increase.
The expected change in turnover is, on the other hand, more favorable (planned price increases?). The survey shows that 16.4% and 33.3% of business leaders respectively expect a strong or slight increase. Only 5% fear a decline, slight (4%) or pronounced (1%). The rest, 45.3%, are betting on stagnation. The intensity of the decline is almost similar in all sectors. It is slightly greater in the regions, where 6.7% of respondents anticipate a slight decline, than on the Rabat-Casa axis. In this part of the country, 2.4% and 1.6% of managers expect this decline in revenue to be slight or strong.
The improvement in turnover is attributed primarily to the reduction in the intensity of the crisis, therefore to the improvement in the international economic situation (40%). This is followed by the increase in demand (33%), the decrease or disappearance of competition (15%), internal performance (18%), and the adaptation of the sector to the crisis.
Only 32.7% would reduce their expenses in the event of a decline or stagnation in turnover
This hierarchy is more or less respected in all sectors and company categories. On the other hand, provincial companies are less dependent on the outside world, as reflected in the survey figures. While 47.6% of respondents from the Casa-Rabat axis attribute the improvement in their activity to the relaxation at the international level, only 27% do so in the regions. Among companies that fear being caught by a decline or stagnation in turnover, 32.7% of managers plan to cut expenses, compared to 48.5% who do not plan any reduction in expenses and 18.8% who are undecided. This is an indication that the majority intend to fight to redress the situation. Even more reassuring: even if a savings plan is put in place and bonuses are in the sights of a good part of the managers who would be pushed to make savings (21.2% of 52), the workforce will be little affected. The reduction in salary costs is mentioned by 3.8% of managers: 1.9% speak out for personnel costs and as many for stopping or reducing recruitment.
Ultimately, optimism is clearly expressed, even though managers are divided on whether 2011 will or will not be the year of the exit from the crisis. Overall, the conflictual political relations with Spain, one of the main trading partners, do not cause fear of the worst: 63% of the sample believe that they will have no impact on business, but 28% frankly express fears.
Published on December 27, 2010
Posted online on December 27, 2010
lavieeco.com
Is the crisis behind us? It is probably too early to say definitively, but the results of the survey on the morale of managers carried out with 201 business leaders (see technical sheet) by the DS Marketing firm on behalf of La Vie éco suggest that the end of the tunnel is clearly visible. First of all, we note that the year was not easy, even if the economy as a whole held up well. Indeed, for the entire sample, 63.2% indicate that their company's activity was affected by a slowdown, which does not necessarily mean a decrease in turnover. The situation is more pronounced in the provinces, with 66.7% positive responses compared to 61.1% for the Casablanca-Rabat axis, where most economic activity is concentrated. The majority of respondents (96.9%) and all 75 provincial companies attribute the difficulties to the economic situation. From a sectoral point of view, the problem is more pronounced in the industry-construction sector, where 69% say they have been affected, compared to 59.7% in services and 59.2% in commerce.
Larger companies less affected by late payers
Despite all the exogenous or endogenous obstacles, business activity did not collapse. Many even did better than just limiting the damage. Only 30% of the sample saw their turnover fall by more or less 10%. For 27% of respondents, it is stagnant and 43% showed an increase. Naturally, the situation was more difficult in the construction and industry sectors. No less than 60% of respondents in the sector declare that they have achieved turnover that is stagnant (27.5%) or down by less than 10% (20%) or more than 10% (12.5%). Nevertheless, in these two sectors, there are more companies whose turnover is up (40%) than companies that have suffered a decline (32.5%). In terms of turnover, commerce is the sector that shows the most declines: 34.7% of respondents in the sector are in this situation. According to size, practically one third of each group is in an unfavorable context. Companies with fewer than 50 employees are in better shape, with turnover up for 46% of them, compared to 45.3% in the large company category (more than 200 employees) and 36% in medium-sized companies (between 50 and 199 employees). In each group, stagnant companies represent 25%, 24.4%, and 31.7% respectively. The increase in the level of invoicing does not always correspond to the speed of recovery. The perennial equation of lengthening payment deadlines considerably hinders operators, especially since the majority, if not all, suffer from a lack of cash flow. The survey data reveal the persistence of the problem. In total, 53.2% of the managers interviewed deplore a deterioration in payment deadlines compared to the previous year, which in many ways was much more difficult. Only 10% of the sample announce an improvement, while the situation has stabilized for 36.3% of respondents.
It is in commerce that late payers are much more prevalent. 61.2% of respondents suffer from an extension of deadlines, compared to 47.5% and 54.2% for the industry/construction and services sectors respectively. Naturally, SMEs are the most affected. 56% of companies with fewer than 50 employees and 56.7% of those employing between 50 and 199 employees are affected by the phenomenon, compared to 41.5% of large companies. Paradoxically, it is in the regions that operators are more respectful of their commitments because the worsening of recovery difficulties is only recognized by 48% of respondents, while it is 56.3% in the Casa-Rabat axis. However, there is a caveat: invoices are generally honored within relatively sustainable deadlines. For 69.4% of those surveyed, payment is made within 3 months of the invoice being submitted. Only 11.5% recover their receivables after 6 months or more. But this last figure must be interpreted cautiously because the harmful consequences of a late payment depend, of course, on the amount, but much more on the financial soundness of the creditor or their ability to refinance themselves in the short term from the banking sector. The further away one is from these last two criteria, the more difficult it will be to cope with delays, regardless of the amount.
Another significant piece of information is that exporting companies (32.3% of the sample) overwhelmingly recognize (66.2%) that they did not encounter difficulties selling abroad. They are 62.9% in the construction/industry group, 66.7% in services, and 73.3% in commerce. The most dynamic are found in companies with 50 to 199 employees: 74.1% compared to 61.9% for small companies and 58.8% for large companies.
Overall, volume did not follow: 44.6% of the sample deplore a reduction. Large companies, although more numerous in regretting difficulties in exporting, suffer much less. Certainly because they work in large markets. They are only 35.3% in this case, compared to 48.1% of medium-sized companies and 47.6% of small companies.
All things considered, the economy has fared well. If we are to believe the majority of managers, the recovery is confirmed. 57.7% find that the current economic situation is favorable. This proportion is close to 60% in the industry/construction and services sectors, but falls to 53.1% in commerce.
The heavy rains at the end of November, which caused more or less prolonged power cuts and devastating floods that led to business shutdowns, did not dampen the enthusiasm of managers. The proof is that 82.6% of the overall sample are optimistic for 2011. The rate is above 75% in all sectors, company categories, and regions. But for the moment, orders for the first quarter or for the whole of 2011 are not exploding, even if those who deplore a fall are very much in the minority (13.9%). In total, 56.2% of the sample indicate that they are at their usual level, compared to 26.9% who declare more. It is in commerce where demand is higher than usual (32.7%), but it should also be noted that it is in this sector that managers are more reserved about the situation prevailing at the end of the year. In short, the intensity of the rebound is generally more significant after a trough.
Except in medium-sized companies (20%), more than a quarter of the sample announces an increase above the usual level: 31% among those with fewer than 50 employees and 26.8% among large companies. The situation is similar on the Rabat-Casa axis as well as in the regions. In the first zone, 54% of respondents announce an equivalent level of orders and 27.8% an increase. In the second, 60% expect stagnation and 25.3% an increase.
The expected change in turnover is, on the other hand, more favorable (planned price increases?). The survey shows that 16.4% and 33.3% of business leaders respectively expect a strong or slight increase. Only 5% fear a decline, slight (4%) or pronounced (1%). The rest, 45.3%, are betting on stagnation. The intensity of the decline is almost similar in all sectors. It is slightly greater in the regions, where 6.7% of respondents anticipate a slight decline, than on the Rabat-Casa axis. In this part of the country, 2.4% and 1.6% of managers expect this decline in revenue to be slight or strong.
The improvement in turnover is attributed primarily to the reduction in the intensity of the crisis, therefore to the improvement in the international economic situation (40%). This is followed by the increase in demand (33%), the decrease or disappearance of competition (15%), internal performance (18%), and the adaptation of the sector to the crisis.
Only 32.7% would reduce their expenses in the event of a decline or stagnation in turnover
This hierarchy is more or less respected in all sectors and company categories. On the other hand, provincial companies are less dependent on the outside world, as reflected in the survey figures. While 47.6% of respondents from the Casa-Rabat axis attribute the improvement in their activity to the relaxation at the international level, only 27% do so in the regions. Among companies that fear being caught by a decline or stagnation in turnover, 32.7% of managers plan to cut expenses, compared to 48.5% who do not plan any reduction in expenses and 18.8% who are undecided. This is an indication that the majority intend to fight to redress the situation. Even more reassuring: even if a savings plan is put in place and bonuses are in the sights of a good part of the managers who would be pushed to make savings (21.2% of 52), the workforce will be little affected. The reduction in salary costs is mentioned by 3.8% of managers: 1.9% speak out for personnel costs and as many for stopping or reducing recruitment.
Ultimately, optimism is clearly expressed, even though managers are divided on whether 2011 will or will not be the year of the exit from the crisis. Overall, the conflictual political relations with Spain, one of the main trading partners, do not cause fear of the worst: 63% of the sample believe that they will have no impact on business, but 28% frankly express fears.
Published on December 27, 2010
Posted online on December 27, 2010
lavieeco.com
