Long-term unemployment is becoming commonplace
7 November 2011
Read by 1692 persons
- 2/3 OF JOB SEEKERS HAVE BEEN UNEMPLOYED FOR OVER A YEAR
- DESPITE THE CREATION OF 120,000 PAID JOBS
Political parties currently vying with each other in a bidding war of employment promises should carefully examine the HCP's latest report on the labor market to avoid making empty promises to voters. The number of unemployed people in the active population increased by 2.7% in the third quarter, and traditional job creation drivers are slowing down (the construction industry, for example).
At the end of September, 1.05 million people were unemployed, compared to 1.02 million in the third quarter of 2010. This represents an increase of 28,000 unemployed people (9,000 in urban areas and 19,000 in rural areas). At least one in two unemployed people is a first-time job seeker (51.3%), according to experts from the High Commission for Planning. In addition, almost a quarter (24.5%) are barely leaving the education system and are looking for their first professional experience. Others find themselves unemployed following the cessation of activity of their establishment or dismissal (29.4%), or following school dropout. 16.1% are in this situation.
It is worth noting a worrying phenomenon: the entrenchment of long-term unemployment (more than one year). Two out of three unemployed people fall into this category, the same proportion as in the third quarter of 2010. More seriously, the proportion of people unemployed for at least five years has increased from 21.1% to 25%. A real time bomb.
While Morocco boasts a growth rate that would make many OECD economies envious, the job content of growth remains too low to absorb additional employment demand. And that is the challenge, analyzed Nizar Baraka, Minister of General Affairs at the L'Economiste Club (see www.leconomiste.com). According to the minister, one point of GDP currently corresponds to 35,000 jobs, compared to 55,000 ten years ago. To improve this content, "we must accelerate the implementation of sectoral strategies and redirect investment towards value-added activities."
The unemployment rate is stabilizing at 9.1% of the active population in the third quarter, but this average masks disparities and does not accurately reflect the real situation. The unemployment rate rose to 13.5% in 2011 compared to 13.8% in urban areas and 4.1% in rural areas. The main changes were observed among young urban dwellers aged 15 to 24 (increase of 3.3 points) and women (1.2 points). It should be noted that unemployment is still higher among graduates (16.9%) than among people without diplomas (4.1%). In short, the younger and more educated you are, the more likely you are to face the reality of unemployment.
However, no fewer than 120,000 net paid jobs were created. But it must be said that the weight of unpaid employment remains significant. It has increased by 70,000 jobs, resulting from the creation of 76,000 jobs in rural areas (exclusively female) and the loss of 6,000 jobs in urban areas. Net creations of unpaid jobs were mainly observed in the agriculture and fisheries sector (89,000 jobs compared to a decline in almost all other sectors).
Services are the main providers of jobs with 152,000 jobs, representing a 3.8% increase in the sector's employment volume. The largest increases were observed in urban areas in the branches of retail trade and repair of household goods (64,600 jobs) and land transport (49,300). For its part, industry created 21,000 jobs and agriculture 14,000. On the other hand, the construction sector recorded its second consecutive quarterly decline with 6,000 jobs lost between the third quarters of 2010 and 2011.
Ayoub NAÏM
Leconomiste.com
Published on November 4, 2011.
Posted online on November 7, 2011.
- DESPITE THE CREATION OF 120,000 PAID JOBS
Political parties currently vying with each other in a bidding war of employment promises should carefully examine the HCP's latest report on the labor market to avoid making empty promises to voters. The number of unemployed people in the active population increased by 2.7% in the third quarter, and traditional job creation drivers are slowing down (the construction industry, for example).
At the end of September, 1.05 million people were unemployed, compared to 1.02 million in the third quarter of 2010. This represents an increase of 28,000 unemployed people (9,000 in urban areas and 19,000 in rural areas). At least one in two unemployed people is a first-time job seeker (51.3%), according to experts from the High Commission for Planning. In addition, almost a quarter (24.5%) are barely leaving the education system and are looking for their first professional experience. Others find themselves unemployed following the cessation of activity of their establishment or dismissal (29.4%), or following school dropout. 16.1% are in this situation.
It is worth noting a worrying phenomenon: the entrenchment of long-term unemployment (more than one year). Two out of three unemployed people fall into this category, the same proportion as in the third quarter of 2010. More seriously, the proportion of people unemployed for at least five years has increased from 21.1% to 25%. A real time bomb.
While Morocco boasts a growth rate that would make many OECD economies envious, the job content of growth remains too low to absorb additional employment demand. And that is the challenge, analyzed Nizar Baraka, Minister of General Affairs at the L'Economiste Club (see www.leconomiste.com). According to the minister, one point of GDP currently corresponds to 35,000 jobs, compared to 55,000 ten years ago. To improve this content, "we must accelerate the implementation of sectoral strategies and redirect investment towards value-added activities."
The unemployment rate is stabilizing at 9.1% of the active population in the third quarter, but this average masks disparities and does not accurately reflect the real situation. The unemployment rate rose to 13.5% in 2011 compared to 13.8% in urban areas and 4.1% in rural areas. The main changes were observed among young urban dwellers aged 15 to 24 (increase of 3.3 points) and women (1.2 points). It should be noted that unemployment is still higher among graduates (16.9%) than among people without diplomas (4.1%). In short, the younger and more educated you are, the more likely you are to face the reality of unemployment.
However, no fewer than 120,000 net paid jobs were created. But it must be said that the weight of unpaid employment remains significant. It has increased by 70,000 jobs, resulting from the creation of 76,000 jobs in rural areas (exclusively female) and the loss of 6,000 jobs in urban areas. Net creations of unpaid jobs were mainly observed in the agriculture and fisheries sector (89,000 jobs compared to a decline in almost all other sectors).
Services are the main providers of jobs with 152,000 jobs, representing a 3.8% increase in the sector's employment volume. The largest increases were observed in urban areas in the branches of retail trade and repair of household goods (64,600 jobs) and land transport (49,300). For its part, industry created 21,000 jobs and agriculture 14,000. On the other hand, the construction sector recorded its second consecutive quarterly decline with 6,000 jobs lost between the third quarters of 2010 and 2011.
Ayoub NAÏM
Leconomiste.com
Published on November 4, 2011.
Posted online on November 7, 2011.
