CMC Forecasts a Mixed Recovery in 2013
23 August 2012
Read by 1596 persons
In a context of near-recession among Morocco's main partners, national economic activity remains fairly stable.
According to the Moroccan Center for Conjuncture's forecasts, the year 2013 promises a mixed recovery.
After the difficult year in progress, the national economy is expected to return to growth in 2013. This is what the Moroccan Center for Conjuncture (CMC) predicts in a recently published analysis to inform specialists and the public on the prospects for the coming year. The CMC document specifies that, internally, and given what is happening in 2012, sectoral performance should not undergo profound changes. Agricultural activities, for example, will remain largely dependent on climatic conditions and the regularity of rainfall, as well as their distribution across the main regions of the Kingdom. "Based on the new economic perspectives internationally and assuming a return to more favorable climatic conditions, the national economy could return to growth in 2013 with a projected rate of 4.1%", explain the Center's forecasters, who are banking on better conditions allowing to regain the performance of abundant years or at least to approach them.
Besides rainfall, the expected recovery is also linked to the international economic situation with which the Moroccan economy is closely linked. In this context, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth of around 4.1% in 2013, 0.6 points more than in 2012. Production activities would increase by 2% for advanced countries and 6% for emerging and developing countries. These rates, as can be seen, represent a slight improvement over those used for the current year. "The markets relevant to the economy, essentially the main countries of the euro zone, will be slow in this movement out of the crisis. After a contraction of overall activity of 0.3%, the euro zone's growth prospects should be limited in 2013 to barely 0.9%, due to the weight of debt and the constraints it imposes on the budgetary level", analyzes the CMC in its report. This slow recovery in the euro zone will, it is explained, have significant effects on the Moroccan economy through the main transmission channels: exports, international investments, transfers from Moroccans residing abroad, tourism, etc.
Increased Production Costs
In the industrial sector, forecast performance depends on several parameters: energy costs, raw materials and labor, productivity, etc. For each of these parameters, the most plausible assumptions allow us to foresee significant changes that could lead to changes in supply configurations. For example, production factor costs should indeed experience significant increases, mainly following those of domestic prices of petroleum products and the increase in the price of imported raw materials. The problem, argue the CMC analysts, is that the increase in production costs, including labor costs, could harm the competitiveness of industrial products.
The Center concludes its forecasts with a mixed outlook for 2013. Inflation, according to it, could rise again, while household consumption should increase by 1.2 points, to 3.9% in real terms. The overall volume of investment, meanwhile, would increase by 5.9%, which would positively boost the inflow of foreign currency into the national economy. Finally, the CMC expects an international recovery context that would lead to an increase in Moroccan exports of around 6.3%. Obviously, the impact on the trade balance will depend heavily on the evolution of energy costs and consumer purchasing behavior towards imported goods. In any case, 2013 seems to promise a certain recovery, even if it is expected to be mixed...
Key Points
The international recovery context would lead to an increase in Moroccan exports of around 6.3%.
Household consumption should increase by 3.9%.
Investment volume would increase by 5.9%.
The IMF forecasts global growth of around 4.1% in 2013, 0.6 points more than in 2012
Ilham Lamrani Amine.
Lematin.ma
Published on August 19, 2012.
Posted online on August 23, 2012.
According to the Moroccan Center for Conjuncture's forecasts, the year 2013 promises a mixed recovery.
After the difficult year in progress, the national economy is expected to return to growth in 2013. This is what the Moroccan Center for Conjuncture (CMC) predicts in a recently published analysis to inform specialists and the public on the prospects for the coming year. The CMC document specifies that, internally, and given what is happening in 2012, sectoral performance should not undergo profound changes. Agricultural activities, for example, will remain largely dependent on climatic conditions and the regularity of rainfall, as well as their distribution across the main regions of the Kingdom. "Based on the new economic perspectives internationally and assuming a return to more favorable climatic conditions, the national economy could return to growth in 2013 with a projected rate of 4.1%", explain the Center's forecasters, who are banking on better conditions allowing to regain the performance of abundant years or at least to approach them.
Besides rainfall, the expected recovery is also linked to the international economic situation with which the Moroccan economy is closely linked. In this context, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth of around 4.1% in 2013, 0.6 points more than in 2012. Production activities would increase by 2% for advanced countries and 6% for emerging and developing countries. These rates, as can be seen, represent a slight improvement over those used for the current year. "The markets relevant to the economy, essentially the main countries of the euro zone, will be slow in this movement out of the crisis. After a contraction of overall activity of 0.3%, the euro zone's growth prospects should be limited in 2013 to barely 0.9%, due to the weight of debt and the constraints it imposes on the budgetary level", analyzes the CMC in its report. This slow recovery in the euro zone will, it is explained, have significant effects on the Moroccan economy through the main transmission channels: exports, international investments, transfers from Moroccans residing abroad, tourism, etc.
Increased Production Costs
In the industrial sector, forecast performance depends on several parameters: energy costs, raw materials and labor, productivity, etc. For each of these parameters, the most plausible assumptions allow us to foresee significant changes that could lead to changes in supply configurations. For example, production factor costs should indeed experience significant increases, mainly following those of domestic prices of petroleum products and the increase in the price of imported raw materials. The problem, argue the CMC analysts, is that the increase in production costs, including labor costs, could harm the competitiveness of industrial products.
The Center concludes its forecasts with a mixed outlook for 2013. Inflation, according to it, could rise again, while household consumption should increase by 1.2 points, to 3.9% in real terms. The overall volume of investment, meanwhile, would increase by 5.9%, which would positively boost the inflow of foreign currency into the national economy. Finally, the CMC expects an international recovery context that would lead to an increase in Moroccan exports of around 6.3%. Obviously, the impact on the trade balance will depend heavily on the evolution of energy costs and consumer purchasing behavior towards imported goods. In any case, 2013 seems to promise a certain recovery, even if it is expected to be mixed...
Key Points
The international recovery context would lead to an increase in Moroccan exports of around 6.3%.
Household consumption should increase by 3.9%.
Investment volume would increase by 5.9%.
The IMF forecasts global growth of around 4.1% in 2013, 0.6 points more than in 2012
Ilham Lamrani Amine.
Lematin.ma
Published on August 19, 2012.
Posted online on August 23, 2012.
