HCP Forecasts 4.5% Growth Rate in the 2nd Quarter
2 May 2011
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Construction, agri-food, and construction sectors are doing well. Tourism is down.
Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate has remained between 4.5 and 4.6% according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP), in a press release published on Thursday, April 28. The construction and tertiary sectors are credited with this performance. For the HCP, the growth prospects remain "generally favorable," although only an annual economic growth rate above 6.5% can absorb all new job demands in the Moroccan market for the year.
By sector, the contribution of agriculture to the 4.6% annual growth of GDP in the first quarter of 2011 is slightly above average, at 4.7%, while for the manufacturing sector, the metallurgical industries and agri-food are performing well, driven by increased external demand. As for the construction sector, its good performance is due to the revival of social housing production.
The only major sector not benefiting from overall economic growth is tourism. Faced since the beginning of the year with political and social revolts in the Arab world, particularly in Tunisia and Egypt, the rate of new bookings has decreased significantly since March, with a 5% decrease in overnight stays in April. The HCP forecasts a 6.6% decrease in tourism for the first quarter of 2011, with similar prospects for the first half of the year. The HCP press release was published a few hours before the news of the attack at the Argana cafe in Marrakech on Thursday, April 28, mid-day. Without having very negative consequences, the announcement of the attack should have an impact on bookings for Marrakech and Morocco over the next 3 to 6 months. If we add the traditional decrease in activity during Ramadan, which transforms a high season month, August, into a low season month, and the continuation of political demonstrations in the country, the tourism sector is not set to break records in 2011.
Published April 29, 2011
Posted online May 2, 2011
Lavieeco.com
Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate has remained between 4.5 and 4.6% according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP), in a press release published on Thursday, April 28. The construction and tertiary sectors are credited with this performance. For the HCP, the growth prospects remain "generally favorable," although only an annual economic growth rate above 6.5% can absorb all new job demands in the Moroccan market for the year.
By sector, the contribution of agriculture to the 4.6% annual growth of GDP in the first quarter of 2011 is slightly above average, at 4.7%, while for the manufacturing sector, the metallurgical industries and agri-food are performing well, driven by increased external demand. As for the construction sector, its good performance is due to the revival of social housing production.
The only major sector not benefiting from overall economic growth is tourism. Faced since the beginning of the year with political and social revolts in the Arab world, particularly in Tunisia and Egypt, the rate of new bookings has decreased significantly since March, with a 5% decrease in overnight stays in April. The HCP forecasts a 6.6% decrease in tourism for the first quarter of 2011, with similar prospects for the first half of the year. The HCP press release was published a few hours before the news of the attack at the Argana cafe in Marrakech on Thursday, April 28, mid-day. Without having very negative consequences, the announcement of the attack should have an impact on bookings for Marrakech and Morocco over the next 3 to 6 months. If we add the traditional decrease in activity during Ramadan, which transforms a high season month, August, into a low season month, and the continuation of political demonstrations in the country, the tourism sector is not set to break records in 2011.
Published April 29, 2011
Posted online May 2, 2011
Lavieeco.com
