Foreign Investment Heads Towards a Way Out of Crisis!

Bringing together 1500 investors and business people in Tunisia five months after the Revolution that upset all the political data of the region is undeniably a challenge. However, this is the very challenge that the "Tunisia Investment Forum" took on, giving the investor community a new visibility of a country that is striving to free itself from a political and economic burden that has weighed on it for over two decades.

Business meetings, certainly, but not only, because it is unanimously seen as proof that Tunisia retains its attractiveness to investors and that its economy is capable of rebounding and entering an orbit that supports real, evenly distributed growth, excluding no region. In doing so, the country is awarded a new title of respectability, in addition to the one earned in Deauville with the world's financiers and other multilateral donors.

The organizers of this Forum undoubtedly have strong reasons to claim that "the 2011 edition takes place in a particular context that remains an opportunity for Tunisia's renewed international emergence, a Tunisia strong in its structural assets and resolutely focused on a future conducive to private initiative." It is hoped that the exit from the crisis will translate into new trends and orientations with the emergence of new regions of implantation and new sectors (offshoring).

In any case, Tunisians are eager to see investors return in strength and in large numbers. And the governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia, Kamel Nabli, did not mince words in warning that "those who do not invest now will no longer have the margin." Especially since the Tunisian economy is emerging from the rut to gradually negotiate its take-off much sooner than expected. As evidence, the growth rate, which was negative in the first quarter (-3.3%), is at zero in the second quarter and will be positive in the third to end the year in the range of 1 to 2%.

The governor of the issuing institute nevertheless mentions two "gaps," the employment gap and the business climate gap. On the first, he noted that it is worsening in the sense that expectations have become greater and achievements even weaker, which leads to apprehension about the coming months when tens of thousands of job seekers will flood the job market, adding to the hundreds of thousands already existing. The second gap concerns the business climate, which the authorities want to modernize, make more welcoming, transparent, and purged of corruption and privileges.

But, for now, this climate is deteriorating due to a lack of visibility, both political and social, insofar as the investor wants to know which government will be in power, just as he seeks reassurance that there will be no strikes and sit-ins. Ultimately, the big question is how to close these two gaps. In this context, the role of the State is to guarantee full and total security, affirmed Kamel Nabli, who mentioned enormous progress and believes that we are on the right track. As for the political actors, they must be characterized by a clear, rapid, and regular course of action. Moreover, the imperative is to return to serious work, a return to normal.

Obviously, the evolution of the situation will also depend on foreign financial support, which the governor of the BCT described as insufficient, also calling on foreign investors to act now while conditions are such that they can be reassured and the risk is calculated, manageable, and sustainable. In short, he said, it is a rewarding risk.

Published on June 20, 2011

Posted online on June 21, 2011

africanmanager.com