Morocco - Working-age population to reach 24.1 million in 2050 (HCP)
13 September 2012
Read by 1491 persons
The working-age population in Morocco is projected to increase from 21 million in 2012 to 24.1 million in 2050. This presents a major challenge, particularly regarding youth employment, according to Ahmed Lahlimi Alami, the High Commissioner for Planning, who spoke on Monday in Rabat.
In Africa, "the number of people in this age group (15-59 years) will increase from 554.4 million to nearly 1.3 billion between 2010 and 2050, an increase of approximately 750.9 million people," Lahlimi stated during his speech at the international workshop on demographic projections, organized by the High Commission for Planning (HCP) in partnership with the United Nations Statistics Division.
This trend is expected to occur as Africa experiences a population explosion, with its population projected to grow from approximately 1 billion in 2012 to 2.2 billion in 2050. However, Lahlimi noted that the trend is much less pronounced in North Africa, where the fertility rate is 2.4 children per woman, compared to sub-Saharan Africa, where this rate exceeds 4.5 children per woman.
"These changes will lead to profound reforms in value systems and societal behaviors, breaking away from the values of a traditional society," Lahlimi emphasized. He believes that the decline in fertility in Africa could encourage household savings and investment in human capital, presenting a "historic opportunity for economic growth" on the continent, provided that this decline is "accompanied by structural policies, particularly in education, health, and governance."
Furthermore, Lahlimi noted that Morocco, situated "at the crossroads of an aging Europe, adopting a selective policy in favor of skilled labor, and a rapidly growing Africa, faces the challenges of pressure from migratory flows" from sub-Saharan countries.
Regarding the workshop's theme of demographic projections, the High Commissioner for Planning stated in a declaration to the MAP that demography is the only field where projections are well-controlled, unlike economics or societal evolution, which can experience sudden changes.
These projections are primarily based on the general population census, conducted every ten years, "which leaves a margin of evolution that is not always captured," he stressed. Moreover, "analyzing data from these censuses requires significant work and time, and their results are sometimes delayed."
In this regard, Lahlimi noted that the issue of data analysis has been resolved in Morocco thanks to the automatic reading of documents. He specified that the HCP conducts a survey between censuses, covering a large sample of 105,000 households, "to capture certain demographic events, such as infant and maternal mortality."
Tomita Osaki Keiko, head of demographic studies at the United Nations Statistics Division, stated that this workshop aims to share experiences and develop the skills of statisticians from 13 French-speaking African countries to conduct their own national projections.
"It is crucial to maximize the use of census data, as it is an expensive source of information requiring considerable investment," added Ms. Keiko in a press statement.
Launched as part of the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses, this workshop should also enable participants to learn about national practices, exchange experiences in this field, and learn about available software for implementing demographic projections.
MAP
Maghrebemergent.info
Published on September 13, 2012.
Posted online on September 13, 2012.
In Africa, "the number of people in this age group (15-59 years) will increase from 554.4 million to nearly 1.3 billion between 2010 and 2050, an increase of approximately 750.9 million people," Lahlimi stated during his speech at the international workshop on demographic projections, organized by the High Commission for Planning (HCP) in partnership with the United Nations Statistics Division.
This trend is expected to occur as Africa experiences a population explosion, with its population projected to grow from approximately 1 billion in 2012 to 2.2 billion in 2050. However, Lahlimi noted that the trend is much less pronounced in North Africa, where the fertility rate is 2.4 children per woman, compared to sub-Saharan Africa, where this rate exceeds 4.5 children per woman.
"These changes will lead to profound reforms in value systems and societal behaviors, breaking away from the values of a traditional society," Lahlimi emphasized. He believes that the decline in fertility in Africa could encourage household savings and investment in human capital, presenting a "historic opportunity for economic growth" on the continent, provided that this decline is "accompanied by structural policies, particularly in education, health, and governance."
Furthermore, Lahlimi noted that Morocco, situated "at the crossroads of an aging Europe, adopting a selective policy in favor of skilled labor, and a rapidly growing Africa, faces the challenges of pressure from migratory flows" from sub-Saharan countries.
Regarding the workshop's theme of demographic projections, the High Commissioner for Planning stated in a declaration to the MAP that demography is the only field where projections are well-controlled, unlike economics or societal evolution, which can experience sudden changes.
These projections are primarily based on the general population census, conducted every ten years, "which leaves a margin of evolution that is not always captured," he stressed. Moreover, "analyzing data from these censuses requires significant work and time, and their results are sometimes delayed."
In this regard, Lahlimi noted that the issue of data analysis has been resolved in Morocco thanks to the automatic reading of documents. He specified that the HCP conducts a survey between censuses, covering a large sample of 105,000 households, "to capture certain demographic events, such as infant and maternal mortality."
Tomita Osaki Keiko, head of demographic studies at the United Nations Statistics Division, stated that this workshop aims to share experiences and develop the skills of statisticians from 13 French-speaking African countries to conduct their own national projections.
"It is crucial to maximize the use of census data, as it is an expensive source of information requiring considerable investment," added Ms. Keiko in a press statement.
Launched as part of the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses, this workshop should also enable participants to learn about national practices, exchange experiences in this field, and learn about available software for implementing demographic projections.
MAP
Maghrebemergent.info
Published on September 13, 2012.
Posted online on September 13, 2012.
