Morocco 2013: The Emergence Plan is Falling Behind
20 March 2013
Read by 1589 persons
Morocco is halfway through implementing its Emergence Plan, launched in 2005 and revised in 2009.
The objectives announced for 2015 may not be met, and "achievements, at this stage, are very disappointing," estimates Guillaume Almeras.
"Halfway through, it seems that the objectives of the Emergence Plan will not be met," predicts Guillaume Almeras, in an article published on Econostrum, today, Tuesday, March 19. An international consultant on economic and financial development issues, associated with the JFC Conseil analysis group, he recalls that "Moroccan exports represent 35% of its GDP, compared to 57% in Tunisia and 49.5% on average for MENA countries."
The Moroccan Emergence Plan, desired by the king, launched in 2005, updated in 2009 in the form of the "National Pact for Industrial Emergence" that we know today, sets specific objectives in terms of contribution to GDP, exports and employment, by 2015, for 6 sectors of the economy considered as having strong growth potential: aeronautics, offshoring, agri-food, textiles, electronics, automotive.
One quarter of exports achieved
"Achievements at this stage are even disappointing," estimates Guillaume Almeras. "In total, the Plan aims for 50 billion DH of additional industrial GDP in 2015. 28.4 billion have already been achieved (56.8%). But compared to the additional exports of 95 billion also expected, only 24.3 have been found at this stage (25.5%)," he explains. In terms of employment, between 35.4 and 44% of the objectives have been achieved according to the figures.
For each sector, the degrees of achievement are different. "The automotive and aeronautics sectors are driven only by two foreign companies (Renault and Bombardier). Tier 1 suppliers have not followed," he explains. Aeronautics has fulfilled 80% of its objectives set in 2005 in terms of jobs created and 55% for offshoring. Apart from these two sectors, all others are behind schedule. The automotive sector has only created 31,500 jobs since 2009 out of the 70,000 planned by 2015. Electronics only 4000 out of the 9000 announced.
Even if the plan's objectives are not fully achieved, at least these 6 sectors of the economy have created 21,000 jobs last year, according to Guillaume Almeras. At the same time, "industry lost 24,000 net jobs in 2012. However, the Global Trades of the Plan created 21,000 jobs last year. It must therefore be admitted that 45,000 industrial jobs were lost outside the Plan sectors," he points out.
Devaluation: A double-edged sword
Privileged economic sectors that are not fully up to par, others that are losing momentum, "nothing very normal in the end because, while following the example of the Asian tigers, Morocco has not used the main weapon of the latter: massive devaluation, which alone could compensate for the relatively high labor cost of the country," estimates the analyst.
By devaluing its currency, Morocco could export more easily since, for a foreign buyer, Moroccan goods would be cheaper. The debate on devaluation regularly returns to Morocco in the face of the low volume of exports, but Bank Al Maghrib, the Moroccan central bank, categorically refuses to resort to it. Devaluation would also have the consequence of increasing the price of all foreign products consumed in Morocco.
Would the benefit in terms of growth and employment at the national level be able to compensate for the inflation that would reduce the purchasing power of Moroccan households? Especially since devaluation would worsen the problem of the compensation fund which is already struggling, at the cost of billions of dirhams, to keep Moroccan prices of certain products in Morocco below their prices on international markets.
Yabiladi.com
Posted online on March 20, 2013.
The objectives announced for 2015 may not be met, and "achievements, at this stage, are very disappointing," estimates Guillaume Almeras.
"Halfway through, it seems that the objectives of the Emergence Plan will not be met," predicts Guillaume Almeras, in an article published on Econostrum, today, Tuesday, March 19. An international consultant on economic and financial development issues, associated with the JFC Conseil analysis group, he recalls that "Moroccan exports represent 35% of its GDP, compared to 57% in Tunisia and 49.5% on average for MENA countries."
The Moroccan Emergence Plan, desired by the king, launched in 2005, updated in 2009 in the form of the "National Pact for Industrial Emergence" that we know today, sets specific objectives in terms of contribution to GDP, exports and employment, by 2015, for 6 sectors of the economy considered as having strong growth potential: aeronautics, offshoring, agri-food, textiles, electronics, automotive.
One quarter of exports achieved
"Achievements at this stage are even disappointing," estimates Guillaume Almeras. "In total, the Plan aims for 50 billion DH of additional industrial GDP in 2015. 28.4 billion have already been achieved (56.8%). But compared to the additional exports of 95 billion also expected, only 24.3 have been found at this stage (25.5%)," he explains. In terms of employment, between 35.4 and 44% of the objectives have been achieved according to the figures.
For each sector, the degrees of achievement are different. "The automotive and aeronautics sectors are driven only by two foreign companies (Renault and Bombardier). Tier 1 suppliers have not followed," he explains. Aeronautics has fulfilled 80% of its objectives set in 2005 in terms of jobs created and 55% for offshoring. Apart from these two sectors, all others are behind schedule. The automotive sector has only created 31,500 jobs since 2009 out of the 70,000 planned by 2015. Electronics only 4000 out of the 9000 announced.
Even if the plan's objectives are not fully achieved, at least these 6 sectors of the economy have created 21,000 jobs last year, according to Guillaume Almeras. At the same time, "industry lost 24,000 net jobs in 2012. However, the Global Trades of the Plan created 21,000 jobs last year. It must therefore be admitted that 45,000 industrial jobs were lost outside the Plan sectors," he points out.
Devaluation: A double-edged sword
Privileged economic sectors that are not fully up to par, others that are losing momentum, "nothing very normal in the end because, while following the example of the Asian tigers, Morocco has not used the main weapon of the latter: massive devaluation, which alone could compensate for the relatively high labor cost of the country," estimates the analyst.
By devaluing its currency, Morocco could export more easily since, for a foreign buyer, Moroccan goods would be cheaper. The debate on devaluation regularly returns to Morocco in the face of the low volume of exports, but Bank Al Maghrib, the Moroccan central bank, categorically refuses to resort to it. Devaluation would also have the consequence of increasing the price of all foreign products consumed in Morocco.
Would the benefit in terms of growth and employment at the national level be able to compensate for the inflation that would reduce the purchasing power of Moroccan households? Especially since devaluation would worsen the problem of the compensation fund which is already struggling, at the cost of billions of dirhams, to keep Moroccan prices of certain products in Morocco below their prices on international markets.
Yabiladi.com
Posted online on March 20, 2013.
