Why didn't unemployment rise in Morocco despite low job creation?
12 February 2013
Read by 1642 persons
Text: The unemployment rate remained stable at 9% in 2012 due to the low growth of the active population. The low participation of women, the decline in fertility, and the lengthening of studies explain this situation.
Employment unemployment Morocco
This is the worst result, in terms of net job creation, that the Moroccan economy has ever achieved; at least since the existence of national employment surveys: only 1,000 jobs at the end of 2012, which, apparent paradox, nevertheless saw the unemployment rate stabilize at the level it was in 2011, i.e., 9%. Of course, it should be specified immediately that there were not only 1,000 jobs created, but 127,000. It turns out that, at the same time, job losses amounted to 126,000. Hence the net balance of 1,000 jobs.
These statistics, provided by the High Commission for Planning (HCP), show, however, that the jobs destroyed are all unpaid jobs. This is an interesting development, because until now, what had inflated the volume of net creations was, in part, unpaid jobs. And these are, roughly speaking, located in the agricultural sector. It is significant in this regard that out of the 126,000 jobs lost in 2012, nearly 86% (or 108,000 jobs) belong to the agricultural sector.
Does this reveal an underlying trend towards improving the quality of employment? Difficult to say, because the destruction of unpaid jobs is rather the result of the bad economic situation facing the Moroccan economy, marked by a bad agricultural campaign last year. Then, a paid job is not necessarily synonymous with a quality job. Moreover, the job creations in 2012, which were exclusively the work of services, were largely in sectors (retail trade, repair of household goods, etc.) where the quality of jobs leaves much to be desired. Few creations, on the other hand, were observed in sectors where jobs are truly of quality, such as financial services (banks, insurance…), for example.
The activity rate of women has been declining since 2003
As indicated at the beginning, this historically low level of net job creation has not been accompanied by an increase in the unemployment rate. What explains this situation? The answer is simple: the active population, in absolute terms, has increased very slightly (+0.1% to 11,549,000 people); one could even say that it has simply stagnated. Proportionately to the population aged 15 and over, it has even decreased, since the activity rate has lost nearly one point, going from 49.2% in 2011 to 48.4% in 2012. Over more than a decade, the activity rate in Morocco has lost more than 6 points, going from 54.5% in 2000 to 48.4% in 2012. More generally, the activity rate in the North Africa and Middle East region is the lowest in the world. In North Africa, it is around 51% and 50% in the Middle East, and this has been the case for the last ten years, according to data from the International Labour Office (ILO). The world average, according to the ILO, was 65.3% in 2009 (date of publication of its report). In developed economies, the activity rate is close to 70%. In Asia, it exceeds 80% and in Latin America and the Caribbean, it is around 80%.
Why is the activity rate in North Africa and the Middle East low? The answer is also simple: the low participation of women. The activity rate of women in the Middle East in 2009 was 24.8% and in North Africa 27.6%. In Morocco, the activity rate of women is currently 26.3%, compared to 28% in 2003. In Algeria and Tunisia, the female activity rate is even lower, with approximately 15% and 25% respectively (which is incomprehensible for Tunisia, a pioneering country in women's emancipation).
In addition to the under-representation of women in the overall labor supply, there is the decline in fertility and the increasingly late entry of young people into the labor market, due to studies that have become longer and longer. This results in a low increase in the active population, therefore less pressure on the labor market. In 2003 and 2004, for example, the active population grew by 5% and 3.6% respectively. In 2012, its growth rate was only 0.1%.
To put it another way, the level of unemployment in Morocco, as in North Africa, reflects less the dynamism of the economy than the structure of the active population in this region…
Morocco: Loss of 24,000 jobs in industry per year
Net job losses in 2012 affected three out of four major sectors. Thus, agriculture, forestry and fishing lost 59,000 net jobs, which reduces the overall volume of jobs in the sector by 1.4%. In industry, including crafts, net destructions amounted to 28,000 jobs, a decrease of 2.2% in the sector's employment volume. The HCP indicates in this respect that industry, since 2009, has been losing an average of 24,000 jobs per year. The construction industry, for its part, lost 21,000 jobs (-2% for the sector), while it created an average of 52,000 per year between 2009 and 2011, according to the HCP.
Salah Agueniou.
Lavieeco.com
Published on February 11, 2013.
Posted online on February 13, 2013.
Employment unemployment Morocco
This is the worst result, in terms of net job creation, that the Moroccan economy has ever achieved; at least since the existence of national employment surveys: only 1,000 jobs at the end of 2012, which, apparent paradox, nevertheless saw the unemployment rate stabilize at the level it was in 2011, i.e., 9%. Of course, it should be specified immediately that there were not only 1,000 jobs created, but 127,000. It turns out that, at the same time, job losses amounted to 126,000. Hence the net balance of 1,000 jobs.
These statistics, provided by the High Commission for Planning (HCP), show, however, that the jobs destroyed are all unpaid jobs. This is an interesting development, because until now, what had inflated the volume of net creations was, in part, unpaid jobs. And these are, roughly speaking, located in the agricultural sector. It is significant in this regard that out of the 126,000 jobs lost in 2012, nearly 86% (or 108,000 jobs) belong to the agricultural sector.
Does this reveal an underlying trend towards improving the quality of employment? Difficult to say, because the destruction of unpaid jobs is rather the result of the bad economic situation facing the Moroccan economy, marked by a bad agricultural campaign last year. Then, a paid job is not necessarily synonymous with a quality job. Moreover, the job creations in 2012, which were exclusively the work of services, were largely in sectors (retail trade, repair of household goods, etc.) where the quality of jobs leaves much to be desired. Few creations, on the other hand, were observed in sectors where jobs are truly of quality, such as financial services (banks, insurance…), for example.
The activity rate of women has been declining since 2003
As indicated at the beginning, this historically low level of net job creation has not been accompanied by an increase in the unemployment rate. What explains this situation? The answer is simple: the active population, in absolute terms, has increased very slightly (+0.1% to 11,549,000 people); one could even say that it has simply stagnated. Proportionately to the population aged 15 and over, it has even decreased, since the activity rate has lost nearly one point, going from 49.2% in 2011 to 48.4% in 2012. Over more than a decade, the activity rate in Morocco has lost more than 6 points, going from 54.5% in 2000 to 48.4% in 2012. More generally, the activity rate in the North Africa and Middle East region is the lowest in the world. In North Africa, it is around 51% and 50% in the Middle East, and this has been the case for the last ten years, according to data from the International Labour Office (ILO). The world average, according to the ILO, was 65.3% in 2009 (date of publication of its report). In developed economies, the activity rate is close to 70%. In Asia, it exceeds 80% and in Latin America and the Caribbean, it is around 80%.
Why is the activity rate in North Africa and the Middle East low? The answer is also simple: the low participation of women. The activity rate of women in the Middle East in 2009 was 24.8% and in North Africa 27.6%. In Morocco, the activity rate of women is currently 26.3%, compared to 28% in 2003. In Algeria and Tunisia, the female activity rate is even lower, with approximately 15% and 25% respectively (which is incomprehensible for Tunisia, a pioneering country in women's emancipation).
In addition to the under-representation of women in the overall labor supply, there is the decline in fertility and the increasingly late entry of young people into the labor market, due to studies that have become longer and longer. This results in a low increase in the active population, therefore less pressure on the labor market. In 2003 and 2004, for example, the active population grew by 5% and 3.6% respectively. In 2012, its growth rate was only 0.1%.
To put it another way, the level of unemployment in Morocco, as in North Africa, reflects less the dynamism of the economy than the structure of the active population in this region…
Morocco: Loss of 24,000 jobs in industry per year
Net job losses in 2012 affected three out of four major sectors. Thus, agriculture, forestry and fishing lost 59,000 net jobs, which reduces the overall volume of jobs in the sector by 1.4%. In industry, including crafts, net destructions amounted to 28,000 jobs, a decrease of 2.2% in the sector's employment volume. The HCP indicates in this respect that industry, since 2009, has been losing an average of 24,000 jobs per year. The construction industry, for its part, lost 21,000 jobs (-2% for the sector), while it created an average of 52,000 per year between 2009 and 2011, according to the HCP.
Salah Agueniou.
Lavieeco.com
Published on February 11, 2013.
Posted online on February 13, 2013.
