Only 90,000 net jobs created per year between 2007 and 2014.
15 May 2015
Read by 2025 persons
With 27,000 net jobs created, the first quarter of 2015 shows the weakest result over the last decade, except for 2012. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 points to 9.9%. Review of job growth in the different branches and sub-branches of economic activity.
Except for the year 2012 where the result at the end of March was actually negative (-109,000 jobs), job creation in the first quarter of 2015 is the lowest in ten years, with 27,000 net positions (see graph). According to data from the High Commission for Planning (HCP) survey on the labor market, these 27,000 net jobs are the balance between the creation of 45,000 positions in urban areas and the loss of 18,000 others in rural areas. The major economic activity sectors (agriculture, fishing and forestry, industry and services) all participated, in different ways of course, except for construction whose contribution is zero: it created 7,000 jobs and lost 7,000 others.
This evolution of the labor market has reduced the unemployment rate by 0.3 points, which now stands at 9.9%, the same level as that recorded in the first quarter of 2012. As is often the case in such a situation, the underemployment rate increased by 0.4 points, to 9.9%. And it's almost automatic: when unemployment falls, underemployment rises.
The overall activity rate does not seem ready to return to its level at the end of the 90s
Without prejudging the developments that may occur over the next three quarters, the year 2015, given the results of the first three months, risks ending with a level of job creation as low, if not lower, than that of 2014 with its 21,000 net positions (the year 2012 can be considered as quite exceptional with only 1,000 jobs created).
According to official figures, and there are no others, the number of jobs created since 2007 has been falling year after year. According to our calculations, based on HCP statistics, barely 90,000 net jobs are created each year, on average, between 2007 and 2014. This is more than insufficient to significantly impact the unemployment level, because to the stock of unemployed is added the additional demand estimated, at a low estimate, at 173,000 people per year. Previously, over the period 2000-2010, the Moroccan economy created an average of 156,000 jobs per year, and it was this dynamic, coupled with a low activity rate for women, which had significantly reduced unemployment, bringing it down from 13.8% in 1999 to 9.2% in 2010.
If, hypothetically, the activity rate of women were to increase, which would be logical given their level of access to education and, more generally, the evolution of society, the additional demand on the labor market would increase by 45% to reach some 250,000 active people per year. We are not there yet, and the activity rates, both female and overall, do not seem ready to return to their level at the end of the 90s. But if the pressure on the labor market is lower due to the low activity rate, the main sectors traditionally providing jobs have on the other hand become sluggish; and it is this double "dynamic" that has made unemployment rigid downwards, stagnating at an average of 9.3% since 2007.
The decline in agricultural employment is offset by services
Taking an activity branch such as agriculture, forestry and fishing, we note that its weight in the overall volume of employment has fallen from 42.2% in 2007 to 39.4% in 2014. In absolute terms, the number of jobs in this branch has fallen from 4.44 million to 4.2 million between the two dates. This evolution can be explained both by increasingly significant urbanization and especially by the modernization of agriculture, which is less and less labor-intensive. This trend will undoubtedly continue, as can be observed elsewhere.
This decline in agricultural employment is however offset by the increase in employment in services. This branch (which actually includes all tertiary activities, according to the HCP nomenclature) now accounts for 40.15% of total employment, compared to 36.7% in 2007. Thus, with nearly 4.3 million active workers, the tertiary sector slightly exceeds the primary sector (agriculture, forestry and fishing). All sub-branches of tertiary activities recorded increases in employment volume between the two dates considered, except for general administration (i.e. the civil service) where a slight decrease is noted to around 500,000 people.
As everyone knows (or guesses), commerce is the leading activity in terms of employment in the tertiary sector. It employs more than 1.4 million active workers at the end of 2014, compared to 1.26 million in 2007. The importance of employment in agriculture (although declining) and in commerce explains that nearly 8 out of 10 active workers do not benefit from health coverage and that practically two-thirds (62.6%) work without a contract.
The second sub-branch in the tertiary sector that employs the most active workers is that of social services provided to the community, i.e. simply education, health, security, culture, etc. (see the official nomenclature of economic activities of the HCP). At the end of 2014, it employed around 600,000 workers compared to 522,240 in 2007, representing an average annual increase of nearly 10,000 jobs. Immediately after, come personal and domestic services (laundry, dyeing, hairdressing and beauty care, thermal and thalassotherapy activities, gardening, private drivers, maids, etc.). Nearly 520,000 people work in this sub-branch at the end of 2014, compared to 454,289 in 2007, representing an average annual increase of around 9,000 jobs. And finally, in order, we find transport, warehousing and communication activities with less than 500,000 jobs, restaurants and hotels with nearly 300,000 jobs, banks, insurance and real estate with some 250,000 jobs. These three sub-branches also recorded fairly significant job increases between 2007 and 2014.
Job losses in textiles, hosiery, clothing and leather
This concentration of employment in services (the tertiary sector in reality) is somewhat similar to what is observed in Europe, and in France in particular, where deindustrialization has led to a reallocation of labor towards tertiary activities. And speaking of industry precisely, it employs, with crafts, more than 1.1 million people at the end of 2014 (i.e. nearly 11% of total employment), compared to 1.26 million in 2007. It must be said that this branch experienced a job loss of 25,000 positions per year between 2009 and 2012. And for the year 2014, the HCP survey indicates a loss of 37,000 jobs in industry.
That said, some sub-branches remain dynamic in terms of employment (and added value as well), such as the food, beverage and tobacco industry, which employed 152,618 people at the end of 2012 (the statistic is not available for subsequent years), compared to 135,847 active workers in 2007. In fact, in this branch, it is mainly the textile, hosiery, clothing and leather industry that has lost the most jobs: -110,457 jobs between 2007 and 2012. For 2014, a loss of 32,000 jobs is reported in this industrial sub-branch, which is why the decline in industrial employment is roughly equivalent to the decline in employment in textiles. But be careful, industrial employment figures include those of crafts. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, total employment in manufacturing industries stood at 577,983 positions at the end of 2012..
Construction has lost 76,000 jobs since 2012
The construction industry, which was one of the main job creation sectors (+55,000 positions per year on average between 2008 and 2011), began to lose jobs from 2012, the year it entered recession: -21,000 jobs in 2012, -50,000 in 2013 and stagnation in 2014 (2,000 jobs created and 2,000 lost). The sector now employs 988,062 people, or 9.3% of total employment.
Salah Agueniou.
Lavieeco.com
Published May 13, 2015.
Posted online May 15, 2015.
Except for the year 2012 where the result at the end of March was actually negative (-109,000 jobs), job creation in the first quarter of 2015 is the lowest in ten years, with 27,000 net positions (see graph). According to data from the High Commission for Planning (HCP) survey on the labor market, these 27,000 net jobs are the balance between the creation of 45,000 positions in urban areas and the loss of 18,000 others in rural areas. The major economic activity sectors (agriculture, fishing and forestry, industry and services) all participated, in different ways of course, except for construction whose contribution is zero: it created 7,000 jobs and lost 7,000 others.
This evolution of the labor market has reduced the unemployment rate by 0.3 points, which now stands at 9.9%, the same level as that recorded in the first quarter of 2012. As is often the case in such a situation, the underemployment rate increased by 0.4 points, to 9.9%. And it's almost automatic: when unemployment falls, underemployment rises.
The overall activity rate does not seem ready to return to its level at the end of the 90s
Without prejudging the developments that may occur over the next three quarters, the year 2015, given the results of the first three months, risks ending with a level of job creation as low, if not lower, than that of 2014 with its 21,000 net positions (the year 2012 can be considered as quite exceptional with only 1,000 jobs created).
According to official figures, and there are no others, the number of jobs created since 2007 has been falling year after year. According to our calculations, based on HCP statistics, barely 90,000 net jobs are created each year, on average, between 2007 and 2014. This is more than insufficient to significantly impact the unemployment level, because to the stock of unemployed is added the additional demand estimated, at a low estimate, at 173,000 people per year. Previously, over the period 2000-2010, the Moroccan economy created an average of 156,000 jobs per year, and it was this dynamic, coupled with a low activity rate for women, which had significantly reduced unemployment, bringing it down from 13.8% in 1999 to 9.2% in 2010.
If, hypothetically, the activity rate of women were to increase, which would be logical given their level of access to education and, more generally, the evolution of society, the additional demand on the labor market would increase by 45% to reach some 250,000 active people per year. We are not there yet, and the activity rates, both female and overall, do not seem ready to return to their level at the end of the 90s. But if the pressure on the labor market is lower due to the low activity rate, the main sectors traditionally providing jobs have on the other hand become sluggish; and it is this double "dynamic" that has made unemployment rigid downwards, stagnating at an average of 9.3% since 2007.
The decline in agricultural employment is offset by services
Taking an activity branch such as agriculture, forestry and fishing, we note that its weight in the overall volume of employment has fallen from 42.2% in 2007 to 39.4% in 2014. In absolute terms, the number of jobs in this branch has fallen from 4.44 million to 4.2 million between the two dates. This evolution can be explained both by increasingly significant urbanization and especially by the modernization of agriculture, which is less and less labor-intensive. This trend will undoubtedly continue, as can be observed elsewhere.
This decline in agricultural employment is however offset by the increase in employment in services. This branch (which actually includes all tertiary activities, according to the HCP nomenclature) now accounts for 40.15% of total employment, compared to 36.7% in 2007. Thus, with nearly 4.3 million active workers, the tertiary sector slightly exceeds the primary sector (agriculture, forestry and fishing). All sub-branches of tertiary activities recorded increases in employment volume between the two dates considered, except for general administration (i.e. the civil service) where a slight decrease is noted to around 500,000 people.
As everyone knows (or guesses), commerce is the leading activity in terms of employment in the tertiary sector. It employs more than 1.4 million active workers at the end of 2014, compared to 1.26 million in 2007. The importance of employment in agriculture (although declining) and in commerce explains that nearly 8 out of 10 active workers do not benefit from health coverage and that practically two-thirds (62.6%) work without a contract.
The second sub-branch in the tertiary sector that employs the most active workers is that of social services provided to the community, i.e. simply education, health, security, culture, etc. (see the official nomenclature of economic activities of the HCP). At the end of 2014, it employed around 600,000 workers compared to 522,240 in 2007, representing an average annual increase of nearly 10,000 jobs. Immediately after, come personal and domestic services (laundry, dyeing, hairdressing and beauty care, thermal and thalassotherapy activities, gardening, private drivers, maids, etc.). Nearly 520,000 people work in this sub-branch at the end of 2014, compared to 454,289 in 2007, representing an average annual increase of around 9,000 jobs. And finally, in order, we find transport, warehousing and communication activities with less than 500,000 jobs, restaurants and hotels with nearly 300,000 jobs, banks, insurance and real estate with some 250,000 jobs. These three sub-branches also recorded fairly significant job increases between 2007 and 2014.
Job losses in textiles, hosiery, clothing and leather
This concentration of employment in services (the tertiary sector in reality) is somewhat similar to what is observed in Europe, and in France in particular, where deindustrialization has led to a reallocation of labor towards tertiary activities. And speaking of industry precisely, it employs, with crafts, more than 1.1 million people at the end of 2014 (i.e. nearly 11% of total employment), compared to 1.26 million in 2007. It must be said that this branch experienced a job loss of 25,000 positions per year between 2009 and 2012. And for the year 2014, the HCP survey indicates a loss of 37,000 jobs in industry.
That said, some sub-branches remain dynamic in terms of employment (and added value as well), such as the food, beverage and tobacco industry, which employed 152,618 people at the end of 2012 (the statistic is not available for subsequent years), compared to 135,847 active workers in 2007. In fact, in this branch, it is mainly the textile, hosiery, clothing and leather industry that has lost the most jobs: -110,457 jobs between 2007 and 2012. For 2014, a loss of 32,000 jobs is reported in this industrial sub-branch, which is why the decline in industrial employment is roughly equivalent to the decline in employment in textiles. But be careful, industrial employment figures include those of crafts. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, total employment in manufacturing industries stood at 577,983 positions at the end of 2012..
Construction has lost 76,000 jobs since 2012
The construction industry, which was one of the main job creation sectors (+55,000 positions per year on average between 2008 and 2011), began to lose jobs from 2012, the year it entered recession: -21,000 jobs in 2012, -50,000 in 2013 and stagnation in 2014 (2,000 jobs created and 2,000 lost). The sector now employs 988,062 people, or 9.3% of total employment.
Salah Agueniou.
Lavieeco.com
Published May 13, 2015.
Posted online May 15, 2015.
