Jobs: An IR cut for nothing
11 October 2010
Read by 1540 persons
58% of bosses did not increase their workforce
• Unfair competition is the main concern
• Results of the latest CGEM/Ifop barometer
Will the reduction in income tax (IR) in January 2010 boost employment? According to the results of the latest barometer conducted by Ifop for the Moroccan General Confederation of Enterprises (CGEM), 58% of bosses did not change their recruitment plans following the reduction in the marginal IR rate. This trend was mainly observed in SMEs with 10 to 49 employees (44%) and 50 to 249 employees (43%). Barely 39% of the bosses surveyed believe that the reduction in IR can be a lever for job creation. These percentages speak volumes about the employment market situation in the coming months, since the Moroccan economic fabric is made up of more than 90% SMEs. Indeed, only 27% of bosses intend to recruit during the last quarter of 2010.
However, bosses' morale resists economic gloom! This is the first lesson learned from the latest barometer of the Moroccan General Confederation of Enterprises (CGEM). Thus, while convinced that recovery is not imminent, the bosses surveyed remain largely optimistic. In addition, the level of concern among business leaders is significantly lower than that revealed by the CGEM/Ifop barometer published last March. This perception is more pronounced in the industrial sector (52%) and textiles (54%). In terms of the geographical distribution of this perception, it is observed that bosses in Marrakech, Tadla-Azilal (56%) and Taza, the Oriental region, and Fès (58%) feel that fear has decreased compared to the current economic situation. The decrease in this fear regarding the economic situation is partly explained by the implementation of an emergency plan for sectors affected by the crisis.
• Level of information on major economic orientations
57% of the bosses surveyed acknowledge the government's role in promoting the national economy, mainly in the textile and transport sectors and in the Tanger-Tétouan region. However, only 47% of business leaders are aware of government measures, such as reimbursements and exemptions from charges, put in place to support sectors in difficulty. These anticipatory measures, according to 71% of managers, inspire confidence. Overall, the reforms undertaken by the government are favorably received by 66% of bosses, a slight decrease of 3% compared to the last barometer. However, none of the major government projects receives majority approval. Thus, the reform of retirement schemes is only favorably perceived by 49% of the sample, down 4% compared to the last CGEM/Ifop barometer. This trend is mainly observed in sectors affected by the crisis such as textiles (56%) and transport (55%). The adaptation of taxation to the needs of businesses is the second most appreciated area by managers (43%), followed by the reform of the judicial system (42%). Another area of action in which the employers want to have a say is the reform of education. 39% of bosses favorably judge government policy.
• Deadline for improvement of the economic situation
The worsening of the economic situation is causing concern for 22% of bosses. Their proportion has increased by 3% compared to the last barometer. But the deterioration of the economic situation only comes in second place, far behind the fear aroused by unfair competition (36%). A scourge among the priorities of the employers' organization. Several sectoral federations have also contacted the Ministry of Finance and customs services regarding the harmful effects of smuggling, under-invoicing, circumvention of rules of origin, and other under-declarations. But in the eyes of bosses, the situation does not seem to be improving. Anti-competitive practices are mainly denounced by business leaders operating in the trade sector (52%). 40% of bosses believe that the share of the informal economy has increased over the past two years (+12% compared to June 2009). The informal sector is mainly pointed out in the northern regions (Oriental, Al Hoceima, Fès and Meknès), where smuggling remains predominant.
• A positive financial situation despite everything
Despite the reservations expressed about government action, and the downwardly revised forecasts for the 4th quarter of 2010, optimism remains the order of the day among business leaders. Thus, whether it concerns the general business climate (81%), the sector of activity (84%) or their own company (84%), bosses remain very optimistic. This is not the case for their French counterparts. Only 55% of company bosses with 20 employees declared themselves optimistic in July 2010. The majority of bosses surveyed anticipate an increase in turnover for their sector in 2010 (54%) and for their own company (55%). Thus, the indices should see satisfactory progress during 2010, but remain below the forecasts of last March. Note that one in three bosses considers the situation in their sector of activity to be better than that of other sectors. In addition, the majority of bosses interviewed (55%) have seen their situation stabilize over the past three months. It is the operators in the construction industry (25% on average) and trade (23%) who have experienced a difficult quarter. On the other hand, the balance sheet is more positive for textiles, agriculture and companies with more than 250 employees. However, the forecasts for the last quarter of 2010 remain satisfactory (32%). 40% of business leaders expect an increase. During the period August-October 2010, more managers of industrial companies (48%), transport (47%), and textiles (46%) anticipate an improvement in their financial situation.
To recap, the CGEM/Info barometer is a quarterly survey designed to monitor the evolution of bosses' opinions on economic activity and climate, the situation and projects of their company. For the barometer, the results of which have just been made public by the CGEM, the sample consisted of 609 companies of different sizes, from various sectors and chosen throughout the country. The questionnaire survey was conducted by telephone.
Published on October 8, 2010
Posted online on October 12, 2010
leconomiste.com
• Unfair competition is the main concern
• Results of the latest CGEM/Ifop barometer
Will the reduction in income tax (IR) in January 2010 boost employment? According to the results of the latest barometer conducted by Ifop for the Moroccan General Confederation of Enterprises (CGEM), 58% of bosses did not change their recruitment plans following the reduction in the marginal IR rate. This trend was mainly observed in SMEs with 10 to 49 employees (44%) and 50 to 249 employees (43%). Barely 39% of the bosses surveyed believe that the reduction in IR can be a lever for job creation. These percentages speak volumes about the employment market situation in the coming months, since the Moroccan economic fabric is made up of more than 90% SMEs. Indeed, only 27% of bosses intend to recruit during the last quarter of 2010.
However, bosses' morale resists economic gloom! This is the first lesson learned from the latest barometer of the Moroccan General Confederation of Enterprises (CGEM). Thus, while convinced that recovery is not imminent, the bosses surveyed remain largely optimistic. In addition, the level of concern among business leaders is significantly lower than that revealed by the CGEM/Ifop barometer published last March. This perception is more pronounced in the industrial sector (52%) and textiles (54%). In terms of the geographical distribution of this perception, it is observed that bosses in Marrakech, Tadla-Azilal (56%) and Taza, the Oriental region, and Fès (58%) feel that fear has decreased compared to the current economic situation. The decrease in this fear regarding the economic situation is partly explained by the implementation of an emergency plan for sectors affected by the crisis.
• Level of information on major economic orientations
57% of the bosses surveyed acknowledge the government's role in promoting the national economy, mainly in the textile and transport sectors and in the Tanger-Tétouan region. However, only 47% of business leaders are aware of government measures, such as reimbursements and exemptions from charges, put in place to support sectors in difficulty. These anticipatory measures, according to 71% of managers, inspire confidence. Overall, the reforms undertaken by the government are favorably received by 66% of bosses, a slight decrease of 3% compared to the last barometer. However, none of the major government projects receives majority approval. Thus, the reform of retirement schemes is only favorably perceived by 49% of the sample, down 4% compared to the last CGEM/Ifop barometer. This trend is mainly observed in sectors affected by the crisis such as textiles (56%) and transport (55%). The adaptation of taxation to the needs of businesses is the second most appreciated area by managers (43%), followed by the reform of the judicial system (42%). Another area of action in which the employers want to have a say is the reform of education. 39% of bosses favorably judge government policy.
• Deadline for improvement of the economic situation
The worsening of the economic situation is causing concern for 22% of bosses. Their proportion has increased by 3% compared to the last barometer. But the deterioration of the economic situation only comes in second place, far behind the fear aroused by unfair competition (36%). A scourge among the priorities of the employers' organization. Several sectoral federations have also contacted the Ministry of Finance and customs services regarding the harmful effects of smuggling, under-invoicing, circumvention of rules of origin, and other under-declarations. But in the eyes of bosses, the situation does not seem to be improving. Anti-competitive practices are mainly denounced by business leaders operating in the trade sector (52%). 40% of bosses believe that the share of the informal economy has increased over the past two years (+12% compared to June 2009). The informal sector is mainly pointed out in the northern regions (Oriental, Al Hoceima, Fès and Meknès), where smuggling remains predominant.
• A positive financial situation despite everything
Despite the reservations expressed about government action, and the downwardly revised forecasts for the 4th quarter of 2010, optimism remains the order of the day among business leaders. Thus, whether it concerns the general business climate (81%), the sector of activity (84%) or their own company (84%), bosses remain very optimistic. This is not the case for their French counterparts. Only 55% of company bosses with 20 employees declared themselves optimistic in July 2010. The majority of bosses surveyed anticipate an increase in turnover for their sector in 2010 (54%) and for their own company (55%). Thus, the indices should see satisfactory progress during 2010, but remain below the forecasts of last March. Note that one in three bosses considers the situation in their sector of activity to be better than that of other sectors. In addition, the majority of bosses interviewed (55%) have seen their situation stabilize over the past three months. It is the operators in the construction industry (25% on average) and trade (23%) who have experienced a difficult quarter. On the other hand, the balance sheet is more positive for textiles, agriculture and companies with more than 250 employees. However, the forecasts for the last quarter of 2010 remain satisfactory (32%). 40% of business leaders expect an increase. During the period August-October 2010, more managers of industrial companies (48%), transport (47%), and textiles (46%) anticipate an improvement in their financial situation.
To recap, the CGEM/Info barometer is a quarterly survey designed to monitor the evolution of bosses' opinions on economic activity and climate, the situation and projects of their company. For the barometer, the results of which have just been made public by the CGEM, the sample consisted of 609 companies of different sizes, from various sectors and chosen throughout the country. The questionnaire survey was conducted by telephone.
Published on October 8, 2010
Posted online on October 12, 2010
leconomiste.com
