Will the Phosphate War Be the Next World Conflict?

An imminent crisis with potentially global consequences is approaching, concerning Morocco and the phosphate trade. The country holds 75% of the known phosphate reserves, "the most impressive near-monopoly in human history" according to Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of the American investment fund Grantham Mayo van Otterloo, interviewed by the BBC.

With a growing population, global agriculture entirely depends on phosphate extraction, used to make chemical fertilizers.

The first problem, according to the BBC, is that reserves are enormous; shortages won't be felt for decades, or even centuries. Phosphate is therefore an undervalued resource and exploited without any environmental limits – even if its price has risen sharply in recent years, before starting to fall in 2013. However, the excessive phosphate input from agriculture not absorbed by plants flows into rivers, contributing to the eutrophication of aquatic environments (excess organic matter in water caused by the growth and degradation of excessive quantities of algae).

Another burning question: Moroccan resources are, as explained by the Global Post, partly located in Western Sahara, a territory claimed by Morocco, which has occupied it since 1976, and by the Polisario Front.

If Morocco is accused of exploiting the resources of the territory it occupies to the detriment of local populations, the multinationals that buy its production are considered accomplices, starting with PotashCorp, the world's largest fertilizer company, as explained by a long investigation by the Christian Science Monitor.

The Moroccan government defends itself by stating that the mines located in Western Sahara benefit local populations, highlighting local hiring and public service funding, including the territory's first university... Sahrawi representatives, however, explain that the latter are discriminated against in the allocation of jobs in mines or ports in favor of Moroccans who come to settle there thanks to government financial incentives.

But it is not so much the moral questions that worry the rest of the world as the strategic stakes of the region: with nearby Mali becoming a playground for al-Qaeda members, some experts believe that Morocco – and therefore the phosphate supply – could in turn be affected by internal unrest.

In addition, a whole generation of Sahrawis who grew up in refugee camps – mainly in Algeria – were completely absent from the Arab revolutions, and this youth is increasingly considering fighting against Morocco, explains the Global Post.

As Jeremy Grantham stated on the BBC, the tensions that could rise on the spot are on the minds of military leaders worldwide: "No one is eager to see the great fertilizer war of 2042 arrive..."


Jean-Laurent Cassely.

Slate.fr

Published on November 22, 2013.

Posted online on November 28, 2013.