Managing Fear of Tomorrow: An Interview with Futurist Marc Halevy
26 April 2009
Read by 1853 persons
Anticipation helps businesses manage risk
Faced with economic uncertainties and the unknown future, businesses need to develop strategies. But how do they do this, and who helps them? Futures studies remain one of the ways they manage risks. Futurist Marc Halevy gives us a brief overview of his profession.
- L’Economiste: How do you define futures studies?
- Marc Halevy: Futures studies involve offering a way of thinking and a questioning methodology (how to build one’s own future among all possible futures). It’s not prediction; it’s not forecasting. It’s anticipating the future to help businesses manage risks.
- What questions are you asked to solve as a futurist?
- Often, the starting point of a relationship with a company is fear. Take the case of fluctuating oil prices, which were skyrocketing at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. It made many businesses realize that resources are becoming scarce and that this was challenging their entire business model. This creates a desire for answers. But the best answer is to say there is no single answer. Business leaders must build their own responses. The specialist’s role is limited to providing the necessary elements to that end.
- How do you proceed concretely?
- Our approach has two components. First, there’s the methodology of asking the right questions. But the second, and in my opinion most important, contribution is a thorough understanding of major trends. Our job is to constantly observe everything happening in the present. Even small things that are meaningful and have the potential for significance. From there, we build models that aren’t predictive. For example, we point out contradictions and disruptions, but it’s always up to the business leader to choose.
- What tools are used?
- First, field observation. In my case, I meet over 500 business leaders a year to see what they do and how they do it, their concerns, etc. Then, you have to follow the news daily (newspapers, Internet...). But the real challenge is sorting through the information to find what’s relevant.
- What are the keys to predicting the future?
- The future is not predictable, as several scenarios are possible. However, what we do is build impossible scenarios. Believing that energy costs will fall in the coming years is an impossible scenario. So don’t believe it. As for the rise, there are several parameters to consider and models to put in place.
- Can a company do its own futures studies?
- It’s difficult. A company, like human beings, out of mental laziness, tends not to want to change its perspective and challenge its management model. It’s very rare for a company to have the maturity and clarity needed to question its fundamentals.
Published October 20, 2008
Posted online October 24, 2008
L’économiste
Faced with economic uncertainties and the unknown future, businesses need to develop strategies. But how do they do this, and who helps them? Futures studies remain one of the ways they manage risks. Futurist Marc Halevy gives us a brief overview of his profession.
- L’Economiste: How do you define futures studies?
- Marc Halevy: Futures studies involve offering a way of thinking and a questioning methodology (how to build one’s own future among all possible futures). It’s not prediction; it’s not forecasting. It’s anticipating the future to help businesses manage risks.
- What questions are you asked to solve as a futurist?
- Often, the starting point of a relationship with a company is fear. Take the case of fluctuating oil prices, which were skyrocketing at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. It made many businesses realize that resources are becoming scarce and that this was challenging their entire business model. This creates a desire for answers. But the best answer is to say there is no single answer. Business leaders must build their own responses. The specialist’s role is limited to providing the necessary elements to that end.
- How do you proceed concretely?
- Our approach has two components. First, there’s the methodology of asking the right questions. But the second, and in my opinion most important, contribution is a thorough understanding of major trends. Our job is to constantly observe everything happening in the present. Even small things that are meaningful and have the potential for significance. From there, we build models that aren’t predictive. For example, we point out contradictions and disruptions, but it’s always up to the business leader to choose.
- What tools are used?
- First, field observation. In my case, I meet over 500 business leaders a year to see what they do and how they do it, their concerns, etc. Then, you have to follow the news daily (newspapers, Internet...). But the real challenge is sorting through the information to find what’s relevant.
- What are the keys to predicting the future?
- The future is not predictable, as several scenarios are possible. However, what we do is build impossible scenarios. Believing that energy costs will fall in the coming years is an impossible scenario. So don’t believe it. As for the rise, there are several parameters to consider and models to put in place.
- Can a company do its own futures studies?
- It’s difficult. A company, like human beings, out of mental laziness, tends not to want to change its perspective and challenge its management model. It’s very rare for a company to have the maturity and clarity needed to question its fundamentals.
Published October 20, 2008
Posted online October 24, 2008
L’économiste
