Tunisia - IMF: Moderate recovery and persistent unemployment
19 December 2014
Read by 1639 persons
The IMF's forecasts remain plausible overall. They are somewhat unfair to Tunisia for the year 2015, which should finally see the return of political stability and, who knows, a social lull. Tunisia could work more and better and would therefore be more attractive to FDI. Shouldn't a bonus have been granted for the launch of the Second Republic?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s economic projections have the character of a sentence. We recall that in October 2012, David Lipton, Deputy Managing Director of the Fund, announced a growth rate of 3% for the year 2013. The year ended with 2.8%. And sentences can, depending on the ups and downs of the economic situation, experience increased penalties. And this is particularly the case with the revision of the world growth rate for 2014, which is lowered from 3.6% to 3.3%.
The Fund's experts will never be fortune tellers, we must accept that. And Georgia Albertin, the Fund's permanent representative in Tunisia, did not deviate from the rule. The same austere forecasts dominated the presentation of the growth scenario for 2015 that she presented, in the presence of the Minister of Economy and Finance and the Governor of the BCT, on Monday, December 8.
A new geographical bloc
It will be 3.8% on average worldwide. Damned, we cannot talk about an improvement! It is not with this low level that we will revolutionize the economic map of the world. And, in this respect, Christine Lagarde, exasperated by the prevailing gloom, will speak of a new mediocre, recalls Chedly Ayari. Europe, our main partner, is less well-off with 1.4% after a 2014 year that lags behind with a meager 0.8%. On the other hand, a slight improvement for emerging countries credited with a rate of 5%, far from the records of the past. Closer to us in the MOANAP region, where the IMF now places us, the oracles announce an average rate of 3%.
Already badly seated in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) bloc, we are now swallowed up within a geographical extension called Middle East-North Africa-Afghanistan-Pakistan (MOANAP). Within this new bloc, we are favored by the forecasts with 3.7%, which is higher than the group average.
Georgia Albertin announces that in 2015 the country will see exports pick up and drive growth instead of domestic consumption. But this does not mean that we will get out of the game because unemployment will remain high at more than 16%.
The energy issue will remain the dividing line between the states of the region
Our intention is not to revisit the IMF's forecasts. Let's be clear, these remain plausible. We observe, however, that the Fund's experts divide MOANAP into two groups of countries. On one side, energy importers, on the other, exporters. It turns out that the Fund places us all in the same category. Exporting countries will be penalized by the fall in prices. And this is quite natural because their revenues will fall and their budgets will be subject to strong pressure. The problem is that there will be no windfall effect for importing countries either, because their currencies have depreciated, which leads to a leveling of the fall in prices! It's just bad luck.
Apart from this, the Fund does not retain other salient elements. We do not share this narrowing of horizons. And we will come back to this. But beforehand, it is necessary to underline a national expertise effect that should not be overlooked.
Local production of reliable economic information
A few days before the publication of the IMF's forecasts, the 29th edition of the Business Days was held. An economic study entitled "potential growth and job creation" was presented on this occasion. It was carried out by three Tunisian academics, namely Professors Sofiane Ghali, Samy Moulay and Sami Rezgui.
The study announced an effective growth rate of 3.8%. We were therefore at the same level as the IMF. The advantage is that the academics announced a potential growth of more than 5.6%, and an average factor productivity of 3.3%. It should be emphasized that this leaves a possible margin for improvement in the economic recovery. And what is even more reassuring is that for one point of growth, more than 22,000 jobs are created. This still makes a difference in the probability of improvement compared to the raw IMF figures.
We welcome the fact that local expertise can produce reliable and credible economic information at home. One might object that the phenomenon is not new, but it is good to recall that the associative information system is at this level of competence.
The IMF deprives us of a stability bonus
All other things being equal, the IMF has failed to credit us with a bonus that is nevertheless obvious. Everyone knows that on December 21, Tunisia will elect the president of its very young Second Republic, and that on the morning of the 22nd, the entire institutional apparatus of Tunisia's democratic state will be operational. This element is crucial for this democracy start-up. And the IMF has been stingy on this matter, obscuring the investment boost that this could bring to the country. This stability bonus was missing from the Fund's report, and we regret it.
Ali Abdessalem.
Webmanagercenter.com
Published on December 18, 2014.
Posted online on December 19, 2014.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s economic projections have the character of a sentence. We recall that in October 2012, David Lipton, Deputy Managing Director of the Fund, announced a growth rate of 3% for the year 2013. The year ended with 2.8%. And sentences can, depending on the ups and downs of the economic situation, experience increased penalties. And this is particularly the case with the revision of the world growth rate for 2014, which is lowered from 3.6% to 3.3%.
The Fund's experts will never be fortune tellers, we must accept that. And Georgia Albertin, the Fund's permanent representative in Tunisia, did not deviate from the rule. The same austere forecasts dominated the presentation of the growth scenario for 2015 that she presented, in the presence of the Minister of Economy and Finance and the Governor of the BCT, on Monday, December 8.
A new geographical bloc
It will be 3.8% on average worldwide. Damned, we cannot talk about an improvement! It is not with this low level that we will revolutionize the economic map of the world. And, in this respect, Christine Lagarde, exasperated by the prevailing gloom, will speak of a new mediocre, recalls Chedly Ayari. Europe, our main partner, is less well-off with 1.4% after a 2014 year that lags behind with a meager 0.8%. On the other hand, a slight improvement for emerging countries credited with a rate of 5%, far from the records of the past. Closer to us in the MOANAP region, where the IMF now places us, the oracles announce an average rate of 3%.
Already badly seated in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) bloc, we are now swallowed up within a geographical extension called Middle East-North Africa-Afghanistan-Pakistan (MOANAP). Within this new bloc, we are favored by the forecasts with 3.7%, which is higher than the group average.
Georgia Albertin announces that in 2015 the country will see exports pick up and drive growth instead of domestic consumption. But this does not mean that we will get out of the game because unemployment will remain high at more than 16%.
The energy issue will remain the dividing line between the states of the region
Our intention is not to revisit the IMF's forecasts. Let's be clear, these remain plausible. We observe, however, that the Fund's experts divide MOANAP into two groups of countries. On one side, energy importers, on the other, exporters. It turns out that the Fund places us all in the same category. Exporting countries will be penalized by the fall in prices. And this is quite natural because their revenues will fall and their budgets will be subject to strong pressure. The problem is that there will be no windfall effect for importing countries either, because their currencies have depreciated, which leads to a leveling of the fall in prices! It's just bad luck.
Apart from this, the Fund does not retain other salient elements. We do not share this narrowing of horizons. And we will come back to this. But beforehand, it is necessary to underline a national expertise effect that should not be overlooked.
Local production of reliable economic information
A few days before the publication of the IMF's forecasts, the 29th edition of the Business Days was held. An economic study entitled "potential growth and job creation" was presented on this occasion. It was carried out by three Tunisian academics, namely Professors Sofiane Ghali, Samy Moulay and Sami Rezgui.
The study announced an effective growth rate of 3.8%. We were therefore at the same level as the IMF. The advantage is that the academics announced a potential growth of more than 5.6%, and an average factor productivity of 3.3%. It should be emphasized that this leaves a possible margin for improvement in the economic recovery. And what is even more reassuring is that for one point of growth, more than 22,000 jobs are created. This still makes a difference in the probability of improvement compared to the raw IMF figures.
We welcome the fact that local expertise can produce reliable and credible economic information at home. One might object that the phenomenon is not new, but it is good to recall that the associative information system is at this level of competence.
The IMF deprives us of a stability bonus
All other things being equal, the IMF has failed to credit us with a bonus that is nevertheless obvious. Everyone knows that on December 21, Tunisia will elect the president of its very young Second Republic, and that on the morning of the 22nd, the entire institutional apparatus of Tunisia's democratic state will be operational. This element is crucial for this democracy start-up. And the IMF has been stingy on this matter, obscuring the investment boost that this could bring to the country. This stability bonus was missing from the Fund's report, and we regret it.
Ali Abdessalem.
Webmanagercenter.com
Published on December 18, 2014.
Posted online on December 19, 2014.
