Indicators Down
25 November 2008
Read by 4319 persons
The IMF's latest report on the country's economic policy showed itself most reassuring and qualified Morocco as a safe destination for investors, calling Moroccan foreign trade "healthy".
However, the trade deficit is a structural issue with all the consequences that implies. The latest figures from the Office des Changes confirm this.
The Moroccan cross-border trade deficit is widening, reaching 167.78 billion dirhams at the end of 2008. There was an increase of around 24% on both sides of the balance. With a coverage rate of 47.9%, imports totaled 321.79 billion dirhams, compared to 154.01 billion dirhams for exports, one-third of which is in phosphates and derivatives (18% in 2007). Strategic products almost tripled in value between 2007 and 2008, benefiting from rising international prices. Excluding the phosphate sector, Moroccan sales increased by only 1%, reaching 102.63 billion dirhams. Consumer goods sales fell by 6.9% to 33.6 billion dirhams, due to a downturn in textile sales: ready-made clothing (-8.4%) and hosiery (-16.1%). However, exports of industrial gold, semi-finished products, raw materials, capital goods, food products, and energy products increased. Furthermore, service exports amounted to approximately 98.9 billion dirhams in the previous year, a slight decrease of 0.6% compared to 2007.
That being said, exports of goods and services increased by 13.2%. Payments between Morocco and foreign countries reached 683.43 billion dirhams (+14.8%), resulting in a deficit of 13,443.4 million dirhams, with direct investments predominating (83% of total receipts). Given the crisis, should we expect large waves of relocation of foreign companies to our country, or will our economy suffer from signs of fatigue, mainly from Europe, Morocco's privileged partner and main investor? Regarding imports, apart from the decline in industrial gold, they are driven by energy products (+34.7% to 70.6 billion dirhams), finished equipment (+26.8% to 70.75 billion dirhams), and raw materials (+66.1% to 26.32 billion dirhams). All other import product groups increased: semi-finished products (+15.9%), food products (+18.5%), and consumer products (+8.5%). FOB-valued goods purchases totaled 302.71 billion dirhams (+26.5%). As for services, they amounted to 49.09 billion dirhams (+10.9%).
In 2008, Morocco's service trade with the rest of the world resulted in a surplus of 49.79 billion dirhams, compared to 55.17 billion dirhams in 2007. However, the balance of goods and services showed a deficit of 98.90 billion dirhams and a coverage rate of 71.9%. Europe remains Morocco's main trading partner, accounting for 62.7% of trade, or 298.46 billion dirhams, followed by Asia with 20.5%, America (10.4%), Africa (5.4%), and Oceania (1%). At the end of 2008, Morocco's trade with foreign countries amounted to 475.80 billion dirhams compared to 383.68 billion dirhams the previous year, an increase of 24%. France, the main trading partner, accounts for 17.8% of Morocco's total trade with foreign countries (main customer with 22.5% and main supplier with 15.6%). Spain remains in second position with 12.5% of trade (second customer with 17.6% and second supplier with 10.1%), ahead of Italy (5.8%), Saudi Arabia (4.9%), and the United States (4.5%). Hopes? The year 2010 will see a change in the trend of the trade balance deficit in Morocco thanks to sectoral programs at both the structural and cyclical levels, said the Minister of Foreign Trade, Abdellatif Maâzouz. With our various partners, regular meetings allow us to take stock of bilateral trade and to examine ways to boost it.
With 90 business leaders and 30 government members, the recent Brazilian mission to Morocco illustrates these efforts to boost Moroccan foreign trade. In a regional integration approach, the five Maghreb countries plan to make a Maghreb investment and foreign trade bank operational in 2009, as recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It would also be opportune for them to broaden the scope of tariff preferences, such as those granted to the European Union, to inter-Maghreb trade, the volume of which does not exceed 3% of the total trade of the five countries.
Transformation: Changes on the Horizon
Taking advantage of strong global demand for fertilizers, particularly in major agricultural and demographic powers such as China, India, and Brazil, and strong global industrial demand (automotive, aeronautics, household appliances, etc.), national mining exports reached record highs in 2008. However, raw phosphate exports could suffer this year from the sluggishness of processing activities worldwide, given the current economic crisis. Conversely, demand for phosphate fertilizers could prove more dynamic than anticipated for 2009. A true vector of the country's economic and social development, the mining sector is an undeniable provider of jobs and foreign exchange. However, despite the competitive advantages enjoyed by Morocco (more than 50% of the world's phosphate reserves...), this sector faces a number of challenges and structural market changes.
Réda Bennis
Posted online March 31, 2009
lematin.ma
However, the trade deficit is a structural issue with all the consequences that implies. The latest figures from the Office des Changes confirm this.
The Moroccan cross-border trade deficit is widening, reaching 167.78 billion dirhams at the end of 2008. There was an increase of around 24% on both sides of the balance. With a coverage rate of 47.9%, imports totaled 321.79 billion dirhams, compared to 154.01 billion dirhams for exports, one-third of which is in phosphates and derivatives (18% in 2007). Strategic products almost tripled in value between 2007 and 2008, benefiting from rising international prices. Excluding the phosphate sector, Moroccan sales increased by only 1%, reaching 102.63 billion dirhams. Consumer goods sales fell by 6.9% to 33.6 billion dirhams, due to a downturn in textile sales: ready-made clothing (-8.4%) and hosiery (-16.1%). However, exports of industrial gold, semi-finished products, raw materials, capital goods, food products, and energy products increased. Furthermore, service exports amounted to approximately 98.9 billion dirhams in the previous year, a slight decrease of 0.6% compared to 2007.
That being said, exports of goods and services increased by 13.2%. Payments between Morocco and foreign countries reached 683.43 billion dirhams (+14.8%), resulting in a deficit of 13,443.4 million dirhams, with direct investments predominating (83% of total receipts). Given the crisis, should we expect large waves of relocation of foreign companies to our country, or will our economy suffer from signs of fatigue, mainly from Europe, Morocco's privileged partner and main investor? Regarding imports, apart from the decline in industrial gold, they are driven by energy products (+34.7% to 70.6 billion dirhams), finished equipment (+26.8% to 70.75 billion dirhams), and raw materials (+66.1% to 26.32 billion dirhams). All other import product groups increased: semi-finished products (+15.9%), food products (+18.5%), and consumer products (+8.5%). FOB-valued goods purchases totaled 302.71 billion dirhams (+26.5%). As for services, they amounted to 49.09 billion dirhams (+10.9%).
In 2008, Morocco's service trade with the rest of the world resulted in a surplus of 49.79 billion dirhams, compared to 55.17 billion dirhams in 2007. However, the balance of goods and services showed a deficit of 98.90 billion dirhams and a coverage rate of 71.9%. Europe remains Morocco's main trading partner, accounting for 62.7% of trade, or 298.46 billion dirhams, followed by Asia with 20.5%, America (10.4%), Africa (5.4%), and Oceania (1%). At the end of 2008, Morocco's trade with foreign countries amounted to 475.80 billion dirhams compared to 383.68 billion dirhams the previous year, an increase of 24%. France, the main trading partner, accounts for 17.8% of Morocco's total trade with foreign countries (main customer with 22.5% and main supplier with 15.6%). Spain remains in second position with 12.5% of trade (second customer with 17.6% and second supplier with 10.1%), ahead of Italy (5.8%), Saudi Arabia (4.9%), and the United States (4.5%). Hopes? The year 2010 will see a change in the trend of the trade balance deficit in Morocco thanks to sectoral programs at both the structural and cyclical levels, said the Minister of Foreign Trade, Abdellatif Maâzouz. With our various partners, regular meetings allow us to take stock of bilateral trade and to examine ways to boost it.
With 90 business leaders and 30 government members, the recent Brazilian mission to Morocco illustrates these efforts to boost Moroccan foreign trade. In a regional integration approach, the five Maghreb countries plan to make a Maghreb investment and foreign trade bank operational in 2009, as recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It would also be opportune for them to broaden the scope of tariff preferences, such as those granted to the European Union, to inter-Maghreb trade, the volume of which does not exceed 3% of the total trade of the five countries.
Transformation: Changes on the Horizon
Taking advantage of strong global demand for fertilizers, particularly in major agricultural and demographic powers such as China, India, and Brazil, and strong global industrial demand (automotive, aeronautics, household appliances, etc.), national mining exports reached record highs in 2008. However, raw phosphate exports could suffer this year from the sluggishness of processing activities worldwide, given the current economic crisis. Conversely, demand for phosphate fertilizers could prove more dynamic than anticipated for 2009. A true vector of the country's economic and social development, the mining sector is an undeniable provider of jobs and foreign exchange. However, despite the competitive advantages enjoyed by Morocco (more than 50% of the world's phosphate reserves...), this sector faces a number of challenges and structural market changes.
Réda Bennis
Posted online March 31, 2009
lematin.ma
